tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post1899389448793877092..comments2024-02-11T19:28:27.997+11:00Comments on Personal Reflections: Musings on the UkraineJim Belshawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-25809037476009450492014-03-06T05:01:36.907+11:002014-03-06T05:01:36.907+11:00Thanks, kvd. Not sure about your second link, alth...Thanks, kvd. Not sure about your second link, although I am inclined to agree with the opening quote. I can't remember how much the US spends on defence, something over 4% of GDP. I think some form of cut back was inevitable. Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-21084476885639845732014-03-04T20:19:18.929+11:002014-03-04T20:19:18.929+11:00Jim
This take reinforces your own earlier comment...Jim<br /><br />This take reinforces your own earlier commentary:<br /><br />http://www.smh.com.au/comment/russia-reveals-both-its-strength-and-weakness-in-the-invasion-of-ukraine-20140303-3409n.html<br /><br />And also this one is worth a read - mainly because the writer seems to agree with my layman's assessment of Pres. Obama's rhetoric:<br /><br />http://www.libertylawsite.org/2014/03/02/there-will-be-blood-our-own/<br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-29496498744820935012014-03-04T18:47:34.940+11:002014-03-04T18:47:34.940+11:00I have now changed l to n! I just didn't see i...I have now changed l to n! I just didn't see it. Depressingly, I agree re the Chinese. However, Hugh White pointed out one plus. This might force Europe into developing a more coherent foreign policy position. Collectively, Europe far outweighs Russian power. <br /><br />On Polish radio today the Polish PM was warning of the dangers to Poland. Oh dear, Poland again! <br /><br />I am not a foreign policy expert. However, it seems to me that Mr Putin has grossly over-stepped in terms of his longer term objectives. Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-81210286775747972982014-03-03T18:27:04.032+11:002014-03-03T18:27:04.032+11:00Russia with or without Putin is basically a sidesh...Russia with or without Putin is basically a sideshow now as far as I've thought about it; they are basically the same as us: an open-cut mine with no modern or next generation economy to speak of. <br /><br />But it/he needs to be stepped on very hard and very swiftly, before the Chinese have it confirmed for them that the US is trending isolationist. The Europeans must know how this sort of creeping aggression ends up.<br /><br />Obama will never do it, but what I think should happen is an immediate freeze on all international Russian funds; and then tell the gangsters who run/own that place they have three months to select a new puppet, otherwise all funds will be confiscated.<br /><br />The Chinese might listen to that sort of strength, as opposed to smirking at the present weakness of the response from the West.<br /><br />Abbott said the right thing - just as you yourself intimated: "In the mealtime..." i.e. entirely for private consumption.<br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-15796665628585044722014-03-03T17:53:49.856+11:002014-03-03T17:53:49.856+11:00On Poland, I had to think about your comment. All ...On Poland, I had to think about your comment. All this could well put downward pressure on the zloty. However, so far the currency is holding up well - http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-02-25/zloty-s-gains-in-ukraine-crisis-show-polish-strength-currencies<br /><br />The big problem with Poland is just how the current politics plays out in the lead up to next year's elections. Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-89159659488719480232014-03-03T17:45:29.180+11:002014-03-03T17:45:29.180+11:001954, I think, Rod. Interesting on the Mongols.
...1954, I think, Rod. Interesting on the Mongols. <br /><br />kvd, as you know, the population shifts across Europe in the twentieth century as a result of war and aftermath were enormous. We are still living with the aftermath.<br /><br />Will Mr Putin go quiet? Possibly.Interesting piece in the Lowy Institute blog that bears on this - http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2014/03/03/Russia-Ukraine-What-is-Putin-up-to-in-Crimea.aspx<br /><br />Western "foreign policy" strikes me as incredibly confused. I put foreign policy in inverted commas for obvious reasons.<br /><br />Looking at Mr Putin, he seems to me to be playing a game itself marked by lack of subtlety in delivery. It's also a game built on somewhat flimsy foundations given Russia's aging population and resource base. <br /><br /> Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-20588642824226536332014-03-03T13:43:05.480+11:002014-03-03T13:43:05.480+11:00Stalin 'seeded' the Crimea with his people...Stalin 'seeded' the Crimea with his people, making short work of the indigenous population. Putin is now merely 'protecting his people' by retaking that which has been considered Russian by rights for many years. I think he will go quiet with what he's gained until the onset of the northern winter, at which time NATO-Europe will be reliant once again upon the natural gas supplies flowing through that area, and you might see more strutting.<br /><br />But 'strutting' is the wrong word, because Putin actually does what he says he will do; whereas Pres. Obama is dangerous because he says far more than he is willing or capable of (and anyway, has no intention of) doing - so many 'red lines' so many 'resets' with both Russia and the Arab States; I don't think much will change unless the US or someone does to Putin what was said to be attempted many times with Castro.<br /><br />If I lived in Poland I think I'd be keeping a close watch on the exchange rate and money transfer restrictions over the next few months.<br /><br />And for the same reason, but different enemy, I'd be more than worried if I were Korean or Japanese, in relying upon an umbrella made in the USA.<br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-75977668308900581832014-03-03T09:54:55.084+11:002014-03-03T09:54:55.084+11:00Your musings have lead me to muse about the histor...Your musings have lead me to muse about the history of the Crimea. In 1957 (I think it was), Crimea was 'gifted' to the Ukraine. Historically, the Crimea has been independent of the Ukraine and more aligned with other nations even being occupied by the city state of Genoa for a long period of time.<br /><br />Here is some interesting information from Wikipedia on the Mongol control of the region:<br /><br />"The borderland area to the south-east was in a state of semi-permanent warfare until the 18th century. Some researchers estimate that altogether more than 3 million people, predominantly Ukrainians but also Circassians, Russians, Belarusians and Poles, were captured and enslaved during the time of the Crimean Khanate. A constant threat from Crimean Tatars supported the appearance of Cossackdom."<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_and_Tatar_states_in_EuropeRodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10962789743908134314noreply@blogger.com