tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post1935903424267715329..comments2024-02-11T19:28:27.997+11:00Comments on Personal Reflections: Monday Forum - China's one child policy, Turkish elections, Labor's isolationJim Belshawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-28215738081107776592015-11-06T16:28:38.198+11:002015-11-06T16:28:38.198+11:00The polls are interesting. William Bowe's Blud...The polls are interesting. William Bowe's Bludgertrack shows an exact reversal in voting intent that had held firm for almost eighteen months. In another report (I didn't record the link and can't find it now), the overwhelming word that respondents used in reaction to the change was relief. Further, Mr Turnbull is clearly having something of a press honeymoon. All this supports your assessment. <br /><br />I am still tying to understand just what Mr Turnbull is, what real changes are likely to occur. <br /><br /> Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-17888345271332619462015-11-06T14:26:16.993+11:002015-11-06T14:26:16.993+11:00Wot tanners said. Particularly that last para :)
...Wot tanners said. Particularly that last para :)<br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-58907608443067233052015-11-06T12:57:59.389+11:002015-11-06T12:57:59.389+11:00I think both kvd and I were indicating a likely ou...I think both kvd and I were indicating a likely outcome. I don't know if yo've seeen the research, Jim, but people often point to the narrowing of the difference between the polls and the punter's market round election time as proof that it's better to listen to the punters. The narrowing is in fact the punters getting close to the polls, not the other way around. Currently *one year out* Sportsbet has Coalition paying $1.15 for a win and Labor $5.50. I can't find the forst post-Abbott Fairfax-IPSOS poll but it was around 53% LNP (TPP) and Labor 47% (i.e. a smidge below the LNP winning margin). When they agree like that, it can be taken as a pretty solid feeling of present voter intent.<br /><br />That's a lot of ground for Labor to recover starting from no discernible policy position and a dog's breakfast of a largely invisible shadow front bench. And only the ability to attack policies that they have supported or non-commital on, hold reviews and present plans. "I'm not MT" is not going to win them an election.2 tannersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-36231841973205769952015-11-06T07:32:05.468+11:002015-11-06T07:32:05.468+11:00Hi Jim - yes, I think it more likely than not, but...Hi Jim - yes, I think it more likely than not, but I don't think that indicates a 'closed mind' on the issue. tanners - no, have never thought that.<br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-67928825445236928542015-11-06T06:39:35.475+11:002015-11-06T06:39:35.475+11:00Interesting 2t and kvd that you both assume that, ...Interesting 2t and kvd that you both assume that, post MT, Labor has no chance in the next election. I still have an open mind on this issue.Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-29077026388386345622015-11-05T19:26:05.950+11:002015-11-05T19:26:05.950+11:00I talking about what Labor would have to do to sta...I talking about what Labor would have to do to stand even a ghost of a chance at improving its electoral standing. I don't think I mentioned actually winning Government.<br /><br />I am planning for at least one LNP governtment following the present one, and if Turnbull's longer game is as good as his short game, it'll be a fair bit more. I remember a cartoon from the 80s with Bob Hawke being carried around the race track by his entire Cabinet and the then luckless John Howard panting after, carrying his own Cabinet by himself.<br /><br />That's not quite the situation here, but close. If Turnbull can hose down the class warriors enough to retake the centre, Labor will have to just about entirely restructure to take it back. Cue bloodbaths that would put Vlad the impaler to shame.<br /><br />As you say, the Greens will feed on their disaffected left, and they are truly in a shambolic state. What else can they proffer but plans, reviews, motherhood and Bill Shorten's corpse?<br /><br />BTW, I think you have the idea that I'm a Labor supporter. Hmm.2 tannersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-49418116246881354732015-11-05T18:01:54.489+11:002015-11-05T18:01:54.489+11:00"To be a little bit fair on Labour" - fo..."To be a little bit fair on Labour" - for why? But anyway, you asked what "should" they do:<br /><br />Please, just stop digging a deeper hole, and plan for another two electoral cycles in opposition. Most of the deadwood should surely have retired by then. <br /><br />Labor is being consumed from one side by the Greens, and wedged from the right (to use a laughable description of what used to be the Liberal Party). It is just simply unhealthy for any democracy to grant any credibility to such a shambles of an opposition.<br /><br />kvd<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-47395615478944272902015-11-05T17:34:10.140+11:002015-11-05T17:34:10.140+11:00kvd
Unfortunately not sarky, simply cynical. Real...kvd<br /><br />Unfortunately not sarky, simply cynical. Really really basic political and economic <b>totems</b> - your comment about mother's milk and apple pie is pretty close to the mark. You nailed it on review, but to be a little bit fair on Labor I'm talking pre-election when an opposition is limited to talk fests, not action. They have to appear to be active.<br /><br />My main point is that there are so many things that so many polls indicate specific things the majority of Australians do or don't support. Neither party seems interested.<br /><br />So, if my opinions are ludicrous, or at least good enough for a jolly chuckle, in your view what should and would Labor in opposition do after ditching Shorten? <br /><br />2 tannersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-43759053002503566512015-11-05T16:20:29.372+11:002015-11-05T16:20:29.372+11:00My recommendation for Labor After Shorten would be...My recommendation for Labor After Shorten would be<br /><br /><i>to become climate warriors</i> - unclear as to for or against perpetuating this farce? <br /><i>champion gay marriage</i> - "champion"? you have to be kidding. That's like me saying I'm in favour of world peace.<br /><i>seize the centre</i> - you <b>are</b> kidding! (Or is this one of those sarcy posts?)<br /><i>Review arrangements on Manus and Nauru</i> - 'review' good! doing something, not so much.<br /><br />If SA is not important electorally:<br /><i>plan to kill the submarine project</i> - key word 'plan'<br />If it is important<br /><i>plan kill the submarine project</i> but offer a statewide sweetener - but in any event, <i><b>'plan' to kill the submarine contract</b></i><br /><br />... statewide sweetener...<br /><br /><i>not sure what, but possibly rail infrastructure</i> - the underpants gang rides again!<br /><br /><i>Plan</i> to redraw the funds from the RBA to reduce the deficit to show that Labor is a better manager - Moving to comedy now.<br /><br /><i>Hold some kind of NBN summit</i> - a plan, a review, a summit. My goodness, the PS will be very busy!<br /><br /><i>campaign for better education and health care</i> - and also that mothers' milk and apple pie should be available to everyone, on a suitable government subsidy, of course. At least Evan only wants his own unicorn.<br /><br />Funniest stuff I've read for ages. Or at least since last browse of The Guardian. (Did you read the one about 'nationalising Twitter' - because it is now 'basic infrastructure'? And all because the 'star' was changed to a 'heart' :)<br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-9870979109916824462015-11-05T13:35:19.253+11:002015-11-05T13:35:19.253+11:00That's an interesting combination 2t. Leaving ...That's an interesting combination 2t. Leaving aside subs, it would potentially wedge the Coalition and Greens. The Coalition would lose votes to the constantly reforming right parties if it moved, the Greens might have to move to the left. But isn't it all just a continuation of current issues politics?Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-84180797138797083262015-11-05T12:41:37.074+11:002015-11-05T12:41:37.074+11:00My recommendation for Labor After Shorten would be...My recommendation for Labor After Shorten would be to become climate warriors, champion gay marriage and basically try and seize the centre. Review arrangements on Manus and Nauru to hold out the promise to the left that something humanitarian might be done, and to the right that significant funding might be saved.<br /><br />If SA is not important electorally, plan to kill the submarine project. If it is important, plan kill the submarine project but offer a statewide sweetener (not sure what, but possibly rail infrastructure). Plan to redraw the funds from the RBA to reduce the deficit to show that Labor is a better manager.<br /><br />Hold some kind of NBN summit with business, community and state leaders, using the most accurate figures they can find - do we save some money (now) or accelerate productivity? What do business and the community REALLY think? Campaign on the outcome. Either way, the Government loses for not having done so.<br /><br />Hitch a ride on the coat-tails of not returning to surplus and campaign for better education and health care particularly for the less well-off. there really are so many things they could do, it beggars belief that not one appears to have been done.<br /><br />Hiding policy until the last minute and small targets are not options now.2 tannersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-25358862862665081002015-11-05T08:36:46.745+11:002015-11-05T08:36:46.745+11:00See your point, 2t. Actually, pollies do often mak...See your point, 2t. Actually, pollies do often make good diplomats. But what about other members of the Labor team? What might they do?Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-38939578539618165362015-11-04T10:02:18.656+11:002015-11-04T10:02:18.656+11:00No, Jim, it makes my strategy impossible. Which is...No, Jim, it makes my strategy impossible. Which is why someone will win a drovers dog election but it won't be him. He'll be given a position to go away somewhere and not bother people again. He'd be a natural for New York, or Brussels. Politicians usually excel in those positions despite what people say about nepotism.2 tannersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-10772529670242170862015-11-03T21:29:22.281+11:002015-11-03T21:29:22.281+11:00Thanks for the clarifications, Michael. Understand...Thanks for the clarifications, Michael. Understand the point. Constantly reminded as to how little I know! Erdogan seems to be gathering support in areas that I do not expect. With the army no longer acting as the guardian of the secular state, would seem like uncharted waters.<br /><br />Hi 2t. Hadn't thought of the comparison with Mr Hayden. That makes your proposed strategy a bit difficult! Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-49426716931582911802015-11-03T19:00:35.736+11:002015-11-03T19:00:35.736+11:00I mentioned izmir only bec of its size. AFAIK it i...I mentioned izmir only bec of its size. AFAIK it is also fairly non-salafist. <- I dont want to say "secular". Cf java: relaxed islam but not secular vs aceh's uptight islam. EtcAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14588363137604719078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-58847723555738710382015-11-03T18:54:00.426+11:002015-11-03T18:54:00.426+11:00Jim: just meant that sociographics "determine...Jim: just meant that sociographics "determine" votes. ALP no hope in turnbull's electorate. West Turkey more secular. Just like west ukraine more small l liberal etc<br /><br />Chhrrs<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14588363137604719078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-39991203111463972682015-11-03T16:39:29.774+11:002015-11-03T16:39:29.774+11:00Ah, now helping Mr Shorten is a different question...Ah, now helping Mr Shorten is a different question. He should essentially grow a pair. (BTW, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/09/penis-size-study-women-men-big-genitals_n_3041609.html" rel="nofollow">in news just in</a>, ANU has determined a strong linkage between penis length and attractiveness to women, but I digress.)<br /><br />His pair should consist of Big Man personality, Centrist policy and a slightly larrikin element to throw the "elitist" personality of MT into sharp relief. It's what every successful Labor leader has shown from Gough onwards. Gillard polled best when she tore into the LNP but for reasons best known to her was immediately pulled back into line to follow focus group messages.<br /><br />Latham was seen as a bit too crazed, Rudd won in part because Howard lost the people's trust (so much that he lost his seat) and Shorten is, for my money, Bill Hayden 2.0. He was simply waiting for victory to fall into his lap. When a Labor Government next forms, I suspect he'll still be around, muttering something about a drover's dog.2 tannersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-8800614111991540872015-11-03T07:53:39.699+11:002015-11-03T07:53:39.699+11:00Ah, 2t. Thought the language was familiar, but was...Ah, 2t. Thought the language was familiar, but wasn't sure. I don't think that that advice will help Mr Shorten very much! Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-50313408298731174822015-11-02T22:18:52.665+11:002015-11-02T22:18:52.665+11:00Jim,
Whenever I forget to tag my messages, it'...Jim,<br /><br />Whenever I forget to tag my messages, it's because I forgot to tag my messages. :)<br /><br />2 Tanners2 tannersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-11898022242310737512015-11-02T21:43:53.322+11:002015-11-02T21:43:53.322+11:00Hi anon. Come back to you tomorrow on your comment...Hi anon. Come back to you tomorrow on your comment.Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-76506243412953490882015-11-02T18:48:14.068+11:002015-11-02T18:48:14.068+11:00What should Mr Shorten do? for the good of Mr Shor...What should Mr Shorten do? for the good of Mr Shorten, latch onto any three word populist policy prescriptions he can find, and hope that MT's media detractors hate MT more than bagging a low tax Labor govt - in - waiting. It's worked before. <br /><br />What should he do overall? Quite possibly resign in favour of Albanese in a gracious handing over of the reins. "Having defeated Mr Abbott, without him even daring a ballot, it is now time for me to hand over to a new set of hands...etc etc". Somehow, I don't see it happening.<br /><br />What WILL Mr Shorten do? My bet is to declare the Labor leadership vacant after they lose the next election, contest it, but go down gracefully.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01568120308989495459noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-932563582359640252015-11-02T14:23:06.362+11:002015-11-02T14:23:06.362+11:00Hi Michael. Good to have a comment from you. Would...Hi Michael. Good to have a comment from you. Would you care to amplify? I agree the map is stark, but I don't know Turkey well enough. <br /><br />Oh, for those interested, this is Wikipedia on on Izmir - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C4%B0zmirJim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-69615500343230951742015-11-02T09:15:04.309+11:002015-11-02T09:15:04.309+11:00Turkey map is stark: secularising west including i...Turkey map is stark: secularising west including izmir; moderate conservative anatolia and kurdish/extremely conservative east.michael orourkenoreply@blogger.com