tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post2757219466173809559..comments2024-02-11T19:28:27.997+11:00Comments on Personal Reflections: COVID 19 Conundrums and failures in communications - a regional perspectiveJim Belshawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-51611717047818139952020-04-15T06:42:57.995+10:002020-04-15T06:42:57.995+10:00Hi Tikno. Lovely to hear from you. I hope that you...Hi Tikno. Lovely to hear from you. I hope that you and yours are all safe. Armidale and its immediate area is, touch wood, relatively safe. Damned if I know on toilet paper. It's not just Oz. There must be months stockpiled! All this is creating funny supply chain issues. There was a rush on mince, production increased, and now stores have put mince on special to try to clear the surplus! Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-40189290496767127422020-04-14T22:00:46.266+10:002020-04-14T22:00:46.266+10:00Hi Jim, I hope you are just fine amid the corona v...Hi Jim, I hope you are just fine amid the corona virus pandemic.<br />Luckily, your city was relatively safe. Indeed human mobility is something that local governments must pay attention to.<br />Btw... why is toilet tissue as if it's a basic need there?Tiknohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05733973438543735098noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-78877358801511313802020-03-19T15:19:54.330+11:002020-03-19T15:19:54.330+11:00hi kvd. I'm not sure how much to read into tha...hi kvd. I'm not sure how much to read into that statistic. The tests have been spread out over time, so one would need to know the changing incidence. I'm also not sure of the statistical significance - this is partly a question of the test population, partly maths that I haven't worked out! But I agree that it does provide a sense of proportion Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-7318949407168623062020-03-19T09:59:04.737+11:002020-03-19T09:59:04.737+11:00Finally, a figure I've been interested to see ...Finally, a figure I've been interested to see instead of just "confirmed cases":<br /><br />As per ABC website, as per yesterday 18 March:<br /><br />"So far, more than 81,000 tests have been undertaken with 414 Australians returning positive results"<br /><br />- I make that about 0.5% infections, and bear in mind one could also assume that those tested are probably the "most likely" candidates, such as the close personal contacts of actual confirmed cases?<br /><br />One half of one percent in the possibly most vulnerable group?<br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-70151247084630197272020-03-14T10:41:51.938+11:002020-03-14T10:41:51.938+11:00That's a very interesting comments, kvd, showi...That's a very interesting comments, kvd, showing the web of unseen interactions. I may at some point become infected too, of course. Unusually, I have never caught flue (well, maybe a long time ago) so that probably makes me a bit blase. Still, I have done what I can and am fatalistic. With eldest, Denmark closed its borders while she was in the air. She has a work visa so should be able to get back in (they may have opened the borders anyway by then) but may then have to go through a fortnight in home isolation. Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-20310381937980352492020-03-14T07:27:18.303+11:002020-03-14T07:27:18.303+11:00Jim, I don't want to take up your entire blog ...Jim, I don't want to take up your entire blog with my layman's thoughts on this epidemic - but suffice to say, I have been following it quite closely since late January in order to keep myself informed of the ramifications for myself, being of an age which is at the lower bound of what I'd term "serious susceptibility".<br /><br />My thoughts at this point can be summarised as:<br /><br />1) My business, though small, is weirdly interconnected with people all over the world - as clients, or client-contacts - strange as that seems.<br /><br />(examples)<br /> <br />- A couple will return from the UK in about 2 weeks, having spent a good deal of time at large gatherings, including Crufts dog show;<br /> <br />- another client called through yesterday with his two just-arrived German nieces, on his way to Sydney for a week in a hotel, for some city sight-seeing;<br /> <br />- another client visits weekly. She is a doctor, engaged at 3 different Sydney hospitals. Her daughter returns from study at LSE in a week's time. To her credit, she has decided to suspend further visits for the moment.<br /><br />(end examples)<br /><br />2) like 'flu it is almost certain that I will, at some point, become infected.<br /><br />3) My business would effectively cease to exist during the time of my infection/hospitalisation. I am not alone in this; it applies to any "one-man show" as you'd appreciate.<br /><br />4) I wish that eventuality to be not earlier than 2021, by which time knowledge (and possibly even vaccines) will be greater, as to care and treatment.<br /><br />In your case, from everything I've read, the possible effect on your children is mild, so, while nobody wants to catch it, they are of an age to survive it easily, and hence be somewhat protected for future waves, assuming no mutation of this virus.<br /><br />I'd be more worried about your good self, than either your or my own children and now grand children.<br /><br />Have a nice day :)<br /><br />kvd<br /><br />ps - yes, that Lancet reference is very considered. Many thanks.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-90179192896506116442020-03-13T11:48:59.071+11:002020-03-13T11:48:59.071+11:00It's difficult kvd. I was reading an article i...It's difficult kvd. I was reading an article in the Lancet that you might find interesting -https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30567-5/fulltext?utm_campaign=tlcoronavirus20&utm_content=120403755&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-27013292<br /><br />I noticed from a discussion on the DE Stevenson group that a lot of US people are self-isolating. The group mainly falls in the older and therefore high risk category. The difficulty with self-isolation is maintaining it. Self isolation for a period makes sense if there are local cases, but if not how do you maintain it until there are local cases? I was thinking from some of the descriptions that they were effectively firing their main bullet in advance of need. Mind you, I would be more worried if I was in the US. They have such an expensive and skewed health systems. <br /><br />From a practical perspective, I did a food stocktake yesterday. I have more than two weeks supply including toilet paper! if push comes to shove although the lack of green veg and fruit might become an issue. Meantime, I am simply topping up as I go along to maintain the buffer. I cancelled the lecture I was to give yesterday because I had a cold. I have always had reasonably good personal hygiene. <br /><br />Next week I have a funeral, a biggish one, as well as several meetings. I will go to these. I'm not going to put my life on hold in advance of real need. Then if I have to do more I will be on a position to do so. <br /><br />I am more worried about the kids. Helen and Christian are in Copenhagen. I messaged Helen yesterday when the news broke about the Danish restrictions. I actually knew as much as them. Christian has been asked to work from home for two weeks. Helen is due to fly to the Dominican Republic today for two weeks staying in a friend's house and is monitoring travels arrangements. I was a bit concerned partly because she might end up stranded, not so much on the health issue. Denmark has far more cases! Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-52020739998827853992020-03-12T13:58:02.961+11:002020-03-12T13:58:02.961+11:00First case in Canberra announced. I wish him well...First case in Canberra announced. I wish him well, as I wish all of us well, but forgive me for suggesting this will now finally! ramp up recommendations for "self-isolation" - which I think is a better term than "social distance" - because it puts the responsibility where it belongs - aka your self.<br /><br />kvd<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com