tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post287982098429347705..comments2024-02-11T19:28:27.997+11:00Comments on Personal Reflections: Rambles - opinion polls, a dispute at the opera with just a dash about writingJim Belshawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-42467565476026724382012-10-03T17:17:12.395+10:002012-10-03T17:17:12.395+10:00I suspect, kvd, that you might find some of the sa...I suspect, kvd, that you might find some of the same responses. However, in this country there is so much technical scrutiny of the polls that overall acceptance is probably higher. Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-8773362719758696702012-10-03T08:11:59.806+10:002012-10-03T08:11:59.806+10:00Further thought on 'gold standards' in thi...Further thought on 'gold standards' in this brassy age: I wonder what a poll about polls would show in Australia?<br /><br />http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/259655-poll-plurality-of-americans-believe-polls-biased-for-obama<br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-83830136655445523382012-10-02T20:29:24.357+10:002012-10-02T20:29:24.357+10:00Cruel, kvd, cruel! I was concerned with national s...Cruel, kvd, cruel! I was concerned with national significance and only as one piece of evidence in a pattern that may extend if certain other things hold. <br /><br />Forecasting in politics is a bit like forecasting in economics. The value of the actual forecast at a point is limited. What is far more interesting and useful is the delineation of key variables on which the forecast is base. When the forecast goes wrong as it so often will, then you have a base for looking at the variance. That actually does help in refining and changing. Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-27612767784679295222012-10-02T20:10:41.736+10:002012-10-02T20:10:41.736+10:00"gold standard"?
That term used to mean..."gold standard"?<br /><br />That term used to mean something before it began to be applied to such meaningless piffle as 'voter intentions' years out from any possibility of 'voter decisions'.<br /><br />Jim, I thought you raised the polling in terms of the national significance - and it may have some relevance in that context.<br /><br />Elsewise, not so much, if any.<br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-69062940329787161312012-10-02T19:54:39.067+10:002012-10-02T19:54:39.067+10:00Hi Jim
I followed your Pollytics link, and I see ...Hi Jim<br /><br />I followed your Pollytics link, and I see what your point is (and agree), but I have to say the best bit was:<br /><br />"So let this be a lesson in the dangers of timeliness when it comes to polling. Polling aggregated over long periods of time in dynamic political environments runs the risk of telling you a story that is at best meaningless and at worst completely wrong."<br /><br />Given the next QLD election is quite a few news cycles away from imminent, I would suggest the writer perfectly displays all of the ills he/she decries.<br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-51673994502483627362012-10-02T19:51:09.756+10:002012-10-02T19:51:09.756+10:00You may be write anon. But don't the two polls...You may be write anon. But don't the two polls measure different things? The newspoll seems to be based on progressive polling over a period, the other opinion at points in time.Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-62309361454531180812012-10-02T13:31:08.691+10:002012-10-02T13:31:08.691+10:00Experience teaches us that the OZ's Newspoll i...Experience teaches us that the OZ's Newspoll is the gold standardAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com