tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post3129875022906961001..comments2024-02-11T19:28:27.997+11:00Comments on Personal Reflections: A Christmas club gambling syndicateJim Belshawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-66812981666530531822012-11-11T06:42:49.693+11:002012-11-11T06:42:49.693+11:00Quite right, Winton! If it is an appropriate case ...Quite right, Winton! If it is an appropriate case study, you don't want it carried out. If it's not, why carry it out? And so on. Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-38829705738691297382012-11-10T19:44:52.982+11:002012-11-10T19:44:52.982+11:00kvd
Um, it can't have been an earlier life. I...kvd<br />Um, it can't have been an earlier life. I owe a huge debt to the script writers of Monty Python and Yes Minister. I think they helped to keep me sane. Some might dispute that, but it is not a suitable subject for a case study!Winton Bateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07383561940886657594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-25672358905363419242012-11-10T18:47:37.976+11:002012-11-10T18:47:37.976+11:00Jim, just to be perfectly clear, because you canno...Jim, just to be perfectly clear, because you cannot see my gentle smile, the above was written in admiration and acknowledgement of Winton's skill.<br /><br />And also that link of his is well worth a careful read - if I might be allowed a possibly inappropriate generalisation.<br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-27711331880504283172012-11-10T18:05:55.011+11:002012-11-10T18:05:55.011+11:00Winton: If my recent experience is viewed as a cas...Winton: <i>If my recent experience is viewed as a case study, I could learn not to overstate the case against the potential to learn from case studies. The problem is in making inappropriate generalizations.</i><br /><br />- so, are you sure that in an earlier life you weren't a script writer for Monty Python?<br /><br />Or was it 'Yes, Minister'?<br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-72690497264767428052012-11-10T17:17:12.273+11:002012-11-10T17:17:12.273+11:00Jim, if we view this as a case study I obviously c...Jim, if we view this as a case study I obviously can't maintain that people never learn anything from case studies. Having had the experience you discuss,you are not likely to make the same mistake again when confronted with a similar problem.<br /><br />The post you referred me to suggested that learning from case studies can mean learning from experience. And the Stein article makes the very good point that people can learn from their experience when they make errors in probabilistic decision-making.<br /><br />I have also had a practical demonstration of the potential to learn from a case study. If my recent experience is viewed as a case study, I could learn not to overstate the case against the potential to learn from case studies. The problem is in making inappropriate generalizations.Winton Bateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07383561940886657594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-2829489536367530382012-11-10T15:33:07.259+11:002012-11-10T15:33:07.259+11:00That's a very interesting link, Winton. I susp...That's a very interesting link, Winton. I suspect kvd would find it interesting. Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-3568572702355921202012-11-10T15:03:04.074+11:002012-11-10T15:03:04.074+11:00Jim
Perhaps you could gain some comfort from readi...Jim<br />Perhaps you could gain some comfort from reading Daniel Kahneman's 'Thinking fast and thinking slow'. He argues that nearly everyone is probabilistically challenged.<br />But I have just found an alternative view <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2015075" rel="nofollow">here</a>.Winton Bateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07383561940886657594noreply@blogger.com