tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post4683456548477611713..comments2024-02-11T19:28:27.997+11:00Comments on Personal Reflections: Update on the New Zealand electionsJim Belshawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-4072192098791195902017-10-10T08:22:42.918+11:002017-10-10T08:22:42.918+11:00I thought that was what you meant, Winton, but it&...I thought that was what you meant, Winton, but it's a bit of a slippery slope. What is disproportionate influence? And what is meant by interests? Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-21532316083777357542017-10-10T08:18:16.627+11:002017-10-10T08:18:16.627+11:00The maths is fairly simple, I think, kvd. Assume t...The maths is fairly simple, I think, kvd. Assume that the mix of views in an electorate is exactly the same as that nationally. Assume that around 10% of voters at electoral and national level strongly support a particular position, while others oppose it. If you campaign in favour of the minority position, you reduce your chances of winning an electorate but increase your chances of capturing the national vote that does support that position. <br /><br />Electorates are not in practice uniform. In a straight electorate based system, you gain power by maximisng the number of electorates that you can win, so you have to do some tailoring of policies and messages to each electorate. In a straight proportional system, and depending on your precise aims, you may aim for a broad vote but are more likely to focus on specific interests or issues that give you the best chance of ensuring your immediate presence in a broader electorate. In a mixed system, you have trade-offs between what is needed in a particular seat and what will achieve the minimum vote you want nationally. <br /><br />The same challenge does arise in electorate based systems, but there you must win specific seats. You don't have the option of maximising the issues vote in quite the same way. <br /><br /> Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-22380055283260265812017-10-10T07:18:15.322+11:002017-10-10T07:18:15.322+11:00Jim, I am opposed to political systems that give m...Jim, I am opposed to political systems that give minoirity interests disproportionate influence. Winton Bateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07383561940886657594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-65980919867966466482017-10-10T06:46:24.605+11:002017-10-10T06:46:24.605+11:00There is less point in maximising your electorate ...<i>There is less point in maximising your electorate vote if it comes at the cost of a lower national vote.</i><br /><br />The mathematics of this sentence eludes me :)<br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-42018264374963705432017-10-09T20:44:05.930+11:002017-10-09T20:44:05.930+11:00A question, if I may, Winton. Do you regard the po...A question, if I may, Winton. Do you regard the political power of minority as a bad thing?Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-57492511859894622012017-10-09T20:27:54.631+11:002017-10-09T20:27:54.631+11:00Yes Jim, a different dynamic. In NZ and Germany th...Yes Jim, a different dynamic. In NZ and Germany the people vote but people like Winston Peters decide who wil form the government. In Australia the people vote and usually determine who will form government, but people like Winston Peters determine what legislation will be passed. In both cases the political power of the minority has a dominant role.Winton Bateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07383561940886657594noreply@blogger.com