tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post5458234642572525246..comments2024-02-11T19:28:27.997+11:00Comments on Personal Reflections: Monday Forum - the administrative competence of the Trump AdministrationJim Belshawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-67139602388384352882017-02-05T15:26:03.961+11:002017-02-05T15:26:03.961+11:00Scenes of chaos http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02...Scenes of chaos http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-05/trump-formal-notice-appeal-lodged-after-travel-ban-decision/8242412Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-54316016282115295942017-02-04T15:22:07.533+11:002017-02-04T15:22:07.533+11:00One of my points on the admin sidelies in sorting ...One of my points on the admin sidelies in sorting out what things mean first. This story, yes it is the Washington Post, shows what happens when you act without due thought. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/federal-judge-temporarily-blocks-trumps-immigration-order-nationwide/2017/02/03/9b734e1c-ea54-11e6-bf6f-301b6b443624_story.html?utm_term=.2a325dceb8c5 Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-65468043913581419312017-02-02T21:28:50.321+11:002017-02-02T21:28:50.321+11:00You almost caused a serious accident, Winton, as a...You almost caused a serious accident, Winton, as a consequence of spluttering. Yes, kvd, I did have a glass of wine near by!<br /><br />You may well be right on the first, kvd. At the risk of being placed in the self-annointed cognoscenti class (ahem), so far we seem to have established that Mr Trump is sticking to his announced program, plays things in an aggressive way and has yet (my view)to demonstrate that he or his Administration can actually deliver. <br /><br />My primary interest is in Mr Trump's international impact. Here he has introduced an almost random but quite palpable influence not just on the global system but in domestic politics in various countries including Australia. I don't know how this will work out. I can make best and worst case assumptions, but in the end we have to just wait to see what happens. <br /><br />I was prepared to make an initial call on the admin question because I have some claim to expertise in this area, but I don't know internationally. Mr Trump's biggest underbelly is, I think, an overweighted perception of American power, of the extent to which he can pull levers and have something happen. I think 2t is right. It is going to take some time before anybody can make a sensible judgement. The one thing that I would be reasonably sure of, and I accept that this is a gross generalisation, is that every country in the world with the possible exception of Israelis treating this Administration with a high degree of caution. Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-36816904691441432882017-02-02T21:20:51.684+11:002017-02-02T21:20:51.684+11:00KVD,
Your "you're twisting my arm, Manny...KVD,<br /><br />Your "you're twisting my arm, Manny" analogy makes a lot of sense to me.<br /><br />And I do appreciate that most stuff on here is polite even if there is disagreement. I wasn't being critical but I can be a bit timid in certain circumstances and I am trying to push myself to express opinions. This last would probably make people who know me well laugh, it is true. Even though today I was asked to do something difficult and a workmate referenced me as "a hard-nosed bitch who doesn't take crap from anyone". Not entirely accurate but I suppose we are all complex creatures.<br /><br />GL<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-16525736339539574502017-02-02T18:49:09.675+11:002017-02-02T18:49:09.675+11:00Perhaps a new series of the West Wing could be sho...Perhaps a new series of the West Wing could be shown as reality TV. Winton Bateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07383561940886657594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-62327198195438313582017-02-02T18:26:29.784+11:002017-02-02T18:26:29.784+11:00Neither Trump nor Turnbull are fools. DJT's &q...Neither Trump nor Turnbull are fools. DJT's "you're twisting my arm Manny" is straight off the streets of NY - and Mr T, being no fool, knows that.<br /><br />I guess the rest of it you'll have to leave up to the self-annointed cognoscenti, who will of course tell us what to make of it, and how they were expecting/surprised aghast/meh all along.<br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-52717885396550795472017-02-02T17:05:33.943+11:002017-02-02T17:05:33.943+11:00kvd @ 1 February 9.00. We are.
In his first comme...kvd @ 1 February 9.00. We are.<br /><br />In his first comment in this thread, Winton wrote: "I suspect the new POTUS would perceive administrative confusion as a plus if it got more "liberals" on the streets protesting. Many of his supporters will assume that he must be doing the right thing if he upsets the "liberals"<br /><br />I mention this now because of the remarkable unfolding story around the conversation between Turnbull and Trump. The framing of that story has shifted several times during the day. I wonder what you thought it all meant? Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-59185168419377371532017-02-02T15:11:51.473+11:002017-02-02T15:11:51.473+11:00I too thought about Whitlam as a direct comparison...I too thought about Whitlam as a direct comparison. I haven't read the Cabinet papers from 1972/3 so I don't know if Whitlam and Barnard were getting advice, but even so, it was crash through or crash stuff. I think Turnbull has a very reasonable point in not commenting on US policy except as it affects Australians, and then to cut a deal rather than publicly wring hands. In my book, he only loses marks for selling it so poorly. And despite my earlier musings, I now get the impression that if someone pushes back on Trump in terms of a deal, he'll simply desert his initial proposal and look for another deal. By and large, he has the strong hand unless someone can find a real vulnerability, like (say) using his remarkably thin skin as a trading tool. My point remains that bureaucrats do not function well in ambiguous environments (particularly legally ambiguous ones, where history shows that it is the official who gets hung out to dry) and that Trump either needs a plan/mode to cope with this or face the inability of the bureaucracy to adjust/help him.<br /><br />But it's far too early to make a call; I tend to think the "first hundred days" measure is also too brief.2 tannersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-47955824514013798052017-02-02T14:47:41.042+11:002017-02-02T14:47:41.042+11:00kvd: He might need more security.
I expect world...kvd: He might need more security. <br /><br />I expect world leaders are starting to think seriously about fallback positions. Perhaps owners of intellectual property in the US should be getting nervous about the future of bilateral deals negotiated on their behalf.<br />Winton Bateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07383561940886657594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-84158594323344517852017-02-02T13:37:23.135+11:002017-02-02T13:37:23.135+11:00Winton, I see there's a joke going round the t...Winton, I see there's a joke going round the traps about objecting to his getting a choice - seeing as "it's his last year in office". Things are getting a bit hairy imo.<br /><br />Difference between Trump and his critics is that they don't seem to understand the value of a fallback position - and that's what makes me a little nervous.<br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-2840463504024856102017-02-02T07:11:57.626+11:002017-02-02T07:11:57.626+11:00kvd: I am sure the Supreme Court nomination was th...kvd: I am sure the Supreme Court nomination was the more important consideration to many of the people who voted for Trump. They wanted a Republican nominee for the court despite strong reservations about the suitablity of Trump to be POTUS. <br /><br />I suspect they might come to regret that choice, but possibly not before 2020.Winton Bateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07383561940886657594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-42504304052639863962017-02-01T14:54:36.384+11:002017-02-01T14:54:36.384+11:00'nominee' not 'appointment'. Apolo...'nominee' not 'appointment'. Apologies to the pitnickers :)<br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-10867808239885975972017-02-01T14:52:08.758+11:002017-02-01T14:52:08.758+11:00See - there's the thing. Trump has just now an...See - there's the thing. Trump has just now announced his first SCOTUS appointment. Assuming confirmation, I think that 'issue' was way more important than any 'adminstrative failure' evidenced by days 1 to 10 of his presidency.<br /><br />But that's just me.<br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-39218185311595955702017-02-01T09:05:49.408+11:002017-02-01T09:05:49.408+11:00Sorry Jim. Had not read your last comment before p...Sorry Jim. Had not read your last comment before posting - but I think we are more in agreement than at odds anyway.<br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-70017685046378248682017-02-01T09:04:02.050+11:002017-02-01T09:04:02.050+11:00I think GL that most of us are, like you, concerne...I think GL that most of us are, like you, concerned by the transition now playing out in the US - but I guess some of our differences in reaction are based upon our different weightings of the issues we see as important? And I'd be surprised if anything written here was less than polite, even where those opinions differ markedly.<br /><br />One aspect of Jim's concern with "administrative process/competence" which I see as quite significant, and as quite different from the Aus and UK experience is the position of the various public services. Here, as in the UK, there is way less patronage granted to the political party in power than in the US - thus, at every change in US president, you see a great swathe of political appointees being replaced in what are essentially, under our own system, regarded as apolitical roles. This cannot assist transition - particularly after such a hard fought, ideology-driven, election.<br /><br />I can't help feeling that this is one aspect of democratic government where the US 'got it wrong' - but I'd be interested in others' views on that.<br /><br />There's the inevitable wiki article on the UK system, which I think is worth a read:<br /><br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_Service_(United_Kingdom)<br /><br />- and I'll also admit that my own current views are somewhat influenced by the recent re-reading of a couple of Frederick Forsyth novels which deal largely with the behind the scenes machinations of the PS - all for Queen and Country as it were :)<br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-78859842432277691252017-02-01T09:03:17.355+11:002017-02-01T09:03:17.355+11:00On Sally Yates and the associated question of poli...On Sally Yates and the associated question of politicisation. This Guardian piece will give you the "progressive" view. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/31/sally-yates-us-constitution-two-fatalities-monday-night-massacre?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other<br /><br />I have a fairly simple minded view here. As in Australia, the Attorney General is a political appointment. That appointee also has constitutional responsibilities set by precedent. Sally Yates was asked to stay on on an interim basis. She felt that at least aspects of the Order may have been illegal. Taking her role into account including her previously stated views on the role, she should have first raised her concerns with the Administration. If they failed to respond, she should have resigned, stating her position.<br /><br />If time precluded all that, then she may take initial action, but should then have resigned at the same time. <br /><br />The fall out within official non-political career ranks is more complicated. I find I lack the knowledge to comment sensibly at this point. Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-44521994663430782572017-02-01T08:28:00.884+11:002017-02-01T08:28:00.884+11:00On the Australian deal. Much of the conversation h...On the Australian deal. Much of the conversation has focused on the vetting processes. My view is that the vetting processes might be toughened, meaning that more might miss out, but there was nothing in the Order that actually precluded the deal. A second and more important issue is prioritisation. Here the Order reduced the US refugee intake. The apparent effect of the restated US support for the deal is that those on Manus or Nauru who pass vetting will be given priority within a diminished US refugee intake. Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-5091020194987686522017-02-01T08:16:45.043+11:002017-02-01T08:16:45.043+11:00Focusing on my point about administrative competen...Focusing on my point about administrative competence Quotes via the BBC - http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38813942.<br /><br />"Top Republican Paul Ryan said he regretted that some people with valid documents were affected.<br />But he also defended the ban, saying it aimed to prevent terror attacks."<br /><br />"Speaking at a news conference, the heads of the department of Homeland Security and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) said 720 people had been detained and "humanely processed" since Mr Trump's executive order had been issued.<br />CBP chief Kevin McAleenan acknowledged that communications "publicly and inter-agency haven't been the best" as the policy was rolled out.<br /><br />He also said that although the order had suspended the US refugee programme, 872 refugees had been granted waivers and were due to arrive in the US this week because they had been ready to travel and preventing them from doing so would have caused undue hardship."<br />Mr McAleenan offered some clarification on how dual citizens were affected, saying the US authorities would handle people based on the passport they were travelling on.<br /><br />Several governments - including the UK, Canada and Switzerland - have already said that their citizens who are also citizens of the seven countries affected by the ban are free to travel to the US.<br /><br />Mr Ryan said he was confident that the policy would now be "done correctly" and would impose the "kind of vetting standards that we all want to see".<br />"No-one wanted to see people with Green Cards or special immigrant visas, like translators, get caught up in all of this," he said."<br /><br />To my mind, these comments support my position about administrative and policy process so far as this EO is concerned. I am not an expert on the US system, but on my reading of the Order, officials were applying the literal meaning of the Order, leading to unforeseen consequences while they struggled to put processes in place based in part on the appeal provisions of the Order. <br /><br />Whether, as I suggested, this EO is a symptom of emerging administrative incompetence can only be judged with time. The alternative view is that it is initial fumbling that will be fixed with time. At the very least, it must be sucking time and oxygen out of the new Administration to do other things. <br />Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-81410079205504000002017-02-01T07:35:28.642+11:002017-02-01T07:35:28.642+11:00GL:I agree with you about many of President Trump&...GL:I agree with you about many of President Trump's actions. My strong impression is that most Americans have strong regard for Australians, but their leader doesn't like criticism from anyone.<br /><br /> Republicans are split between the Trump supporters - economic nationalists - and those who still believe in small government and free trade. At this stage it looks as though the Trump supporters have just about taken over the party. I am not optimistic that the tradional Republicans in Congress will be able to exercise much restraint on the president unless his popularity declines among party supporters.Winton Bateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07383561940886657594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-71839001546698682962017-02-01T00:47:21.908+11:002017-02-01T00:47:21.908+11:00The world is full of hypocrites. Most of the count...The world is full of hypocrites. Most of the countries on the banned list ban entry themselves from other countries. Chief target is Israel. Not a peep out of the commentariat. Shades of Ernie Bevin and Glubb Pasha, I imagine.<br /><br />DGAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-49831693629660694822017-01-31T23:53:49.799+11:002017-01-31T23:53:49.799+11:00This is a fairly intimidating conversation to wade...This is a fairly intimidating conversation to wade into. I am not, nor have I ever been, a public servant in the sense that all of you seem to have been. I am however a relatively new student of history and I am finding President Trump's actions quite unnerving, despite the undoubted fact that he is delivering as promised. It has all happened before on some level. Winton, with the greatest of respect (and knowing that you know more than me), the US has called us (Australia) the best of friends so many times through history, but it is only as it suits their own interests. You probably have economic or other thoughts in mind.<br /><br />One of my friends is ceaselessly engaging on Facebook with right-wing Americans - the feed is flooded with it. Against better judgement I read a little bit. There is no rhetoric, it is just ranting and it is exhausting.<br /><br />I really do hope things get more moderate but I doubt it.<br /><br />GL (be kind)<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-27621234649847303472017-01-31T20:24:18.088+11:002017-01-31T20:24:18.088+11:00kvd: Perhaps the cost is just the obligation that ...kvd: Perhaps the cost is just the obligation that comes with friendship. It could be costly if our friend threatens a major business partner, but perhaps we will be better placed than otherwise to advise restraint. From what I have been reading about the art of dealing with powerful people with symptoms of malignant narcissism, it looks as though you can have more influence if they see you as a friend rather than a critic.Winton Bateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07383561940886657594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-25492920217461386162017-01-31T17:21:04.796+11:002017-01-31T17:21:04.796+11:00Winton thoughtful as ever :)
Who knew a mere pub...Winton thoughtful as ever :) <br /><br />Who knew a mere public servant (even if retired) could see beyond the chaos to what might better serve his country's further interests? Be interesting to be appraised of what that particular negotiation cost us.<br /><br />That's what gets me about the unicorn lovers: nobody thinks about picking up the poop :)<br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-31267974238495446482017-01-31T16:10:08.469+11:002017-01-31T16:10:08.469+11:00Since Jim suggested that the discussion could go i...Since Jim suggested that the discussion could go in any direction, might I suggest that our prime minister deserves praise for the stance he has taken of not offering a running commentary on U.S. government policy. Those who advocate that our government should join the international chorus of condemnation seem to be prepared to place at risk the resettlement of refugees on Manus and Nauru. Winton Bateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07383561940886657594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-58943914175221726802017-01-31T15:27:00.339+11:002017-01-31T15:27:00.339+11:00Just a gentle reminder. Both you and tanners are r...Just a gentle reminder. Both you and tanners are responding with your hearts on your sleeves, as it were - but the topic you raised referred solely to 'administrative competence'. Nothing in my comments indicates one way or t'other how I view his first week's worth of EOs personally.<br /><br />A competent public service would respond as best it could, to whatever asked of it, by its new masters.<br /><br />Not sure complaining about "why weren't we told" carries much weight against a new master simply trying to do what he said he would, hindered by a politicised public service he has as yet had no part in 'renewing'?<br /><br />kvd<br /><br />kvd Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com