tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post7213927736928857442..comments2024-02-11T19:28:27.997+11:00Comments on Personal Reflections: Monday Forum - Australia's messy politicsJim Belshawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-23316904032477043242016-03-29T06:02:24.728+11:002016-03-29T06:02:24.728+11:00Hi 2t. I'm sure that's their thinking. And...Hi 2t. I'm sure that's their thinking. And your point about alternatives is a fair one. I guess that the question becomes how many Green supporters are in fact prepared to vote Labor or, less likely, Liberal or Xenephon for that matter?<br /><br />I think that my point on the budget was a little different. Some form of supply bills will be passed, but the supporting legislative changes will have to wait for the election.Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-70247351519796509372016-03-28T17:25:48.382+11:002016-03-28T17:25:48.382+11:00I think I was wrong about the Greens. This way the...I think I was wrong about the Greens. This way they get more representatives in the senate at the expense of the microparties (i.e. potential control of the cross benches) and who are Green voters, angered by the cynicism going to go to? Possibly the Sex Party in Victoria, who actually have a chance this time, but really, no-one.<br /><br />You might be right about the budget, as Labor's 40 year old policy is that it will not block supply. I'd take that as including deferral given the history of the policy.2 tannersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-28200538038429292542016-03-25T09:05:46.132+11:002016-03-25T09:05:46.132+11:00On decisiveness, Winton, I was quoting the comment...On decisiveness, Winton, I was quoting the commentators! I don't know whether or not MT will be seen that way. I wouldn't hold your breath on the budget.<br /><br />2t, I'm inclined to agree on wedging the Greens. On the budget, you raise an interesting point. It comes back to conventions and timing. My feeling is that it will be a full budget, although not one to satisfy Winton, with the election formally called after that date. The budget will then become part of the election campaign, with implementation deferred. <br /><br />Whichever way it goes, whatever the Government announces now is part of the election. We won't get anything new implemented until after the election beyond machinery stuff. The way the process has worked starting from the mishandled earlier speculation has effectively puts a six to eight month hiatus in the governing process. <br /><br /> Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-68141969751708204432016-03-24T13:36:36.788+11:002016-03-24T13:36:36.788+11:00Certainly he's wedged the Greens. LNP voted ag...Certainly he's wedged the Greens. LNP voted against hearing the ABCC bill and Greens voted against the SSM bill, but only the latter got real airplay. And if the ABCC bill goes through, he says he won't hold a DD after all. He won, Greens lost and Labor is in the middle. <br /><br />The Budget will be fascinating. If I understand Antony Green correctly, then if the ABCC Bill passes it will be a full fledged budget, but if he's calling a DD it will be a no new initiatives budget to carry supply across the election period. If a full fledged budget, though, the key test is will it be a Turnbull budget, or will it be, as TA says, an unchanged Abbott budget?2 tannersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-90389175411733140402016-03-23T18:58:14.614+11:002016-03-23T18:58:14.614+11:00Jim, I think you are right that the enduring memor...Jim, I think you are right that the enduring memory will be be the PM acting decisively. <br /><br />I am hopeful that the coming budget will provide further evidence of decisive action.Winton Bateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07383561940886657594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-71351916712634775932016-03-22T06:24:16.176+11:002016-03-22T06:24:16.176+11:00I haven't done the electoral maths, 2t. It'...I haven't done the electoral maths, 2t. It's actually very hard to see how these things will work out. I am listening to the ABC commentary as I write. I quote: "the more enduring memory will be the PM acting decisively." And again: "He has wedged the Greens and Labor". On the first, it depends on events. On the second, if I could work out the possibilities if not the details and Labor and the Greens could not, they need better strategists! Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-37860324258569673882016-03-21T10:07:33.714+11:002016-03-21T10:07:33.714+11:00My personal opinion is that the Greens are the big...My personal opinion is that the Greens are the big losers, followed by Turnbull. Xenophon has a personal following which will excuse political manoeuvring where it seems clear that the major parties are ganging up to get rid of him. The Greens have lost their ideological purity by voting against having their own legislation passed, a move which will anger their base. They should have consulted the history books and seen who won and lost from the GST. Hint: the Coalition stayed in power and the Australian Democrats in-fought themselves into oblivion.<br /><br />Turnbull is looking rudderless, which isn't quite as bad as his predecessor's bull-in-a-china-shop approach, but also is not what was on the packet as advertised (mature discussion of the issues, subtext: courageous moves after discussion).<br /><br />Penny Wong has had a field day with some great lines, but let's face it - few remember political zingers the next week. However, Labor will give the Greens a total belting for betraying their commitment to never vote against climate legislation. It's about now that Labor historians will be calling this the second Greens vote to stymie climate change legislation. Between a fall-off in Coalition support, an alienation of the Greens voter base and any changes to Senate seat allocation rules, enough may have been done to hand the Senate to Labor.2 tannesnoreply@blogger.com