tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post2298967817612736653..comments2024-02-11T19:28:27.997+11:00Comments on Personal Reflections: Where might the workers come from?Jim Belshawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-8905077638891383922013-11-18T10:00:47.028+11:002013-11-18T10:00:47.028+11:00How can the education system be the customer, kvd?...<i>How can the education system be the customer, kvd? It doesn't buy anything!</i><br /><br />- for 'education system' read NSW Dept of Education, plus the various Private and Religious Schools. They are the 'customers' buying (employing) the widgets (new teachers) from the manufacturer (the universities).<br /><br />- manufacture has exceeded demand, by maybe 10 years it seems, but then what else would you expect from a system propped up at both ends by government subsidy?<br /><br />- I had a wander around Qld, NZ, Canada, UK and US results of similar Google searches, and it seems we are not alone in our over production.<br /><br />Or as one teacher in New Zealand put it so well: "you'd think some policy wonk might be capable of seeing we are in an era of over supply of new teacher graduates".<br /><br />kvd<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-36547121203275940562013-11-18T09:36:36.258+11:002013-11-18T09:36:36.258+11:00How can the education system be the customer, kvd?...How can the education system be the customer, kvd? It doesn't buy anything! Students do, as does the Commonwealth Government in a general sense. Students buy specific courses that they choose, the Government pays the balance.<br /><br />The question of over or under supply in particular courses - that earlier article was interesting - is a long running problem. However, attempts to cure the problem via direct controls tend to exacerbate the problem. Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-85652466415307408722013-11-18T08:24:08.721+11:002013-11-18T08:24:08.721+11:00Here's an earlier article providing some more ...Here's an earlier article providing some more stats, and more importantly pointing towards a tentative conclusion which I would support. Note particularly the reference to Canadian responses.<br /><br />http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/are-we-facing-a-glut-of-teachers-20130829-2ss22.html<br /><br />Incidentally, I got to this via a Google search for "unemployed teachers NSW", not simply because it was SMH-sourced.<br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-31635392988492254392013-11-18T06:56:01.049+11:002013-11-18T06:56:01.049+11:00Wrong 'customer' Jim. The actual customer ...Wrong 'customer' Jim. The actual customer is the education system, demanding and extra 4,000 teachers - which can be readily supplied from the 'stock' of 40,000 without further manufacture, surely?<br /><br />I think the analogy is rough but fair - but what's missing from the article is knowledge of just how many of the 40,000 are presently actually <i>not employed as teachers</i>. If all 40,000 are on casual teaching contracts then, yes, continue 'producing them' - and start to ask the sorts of questions you put in earlier comments.<br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-60253703012276757522013-11-18T06:44:49.550+11:002013-11-18T06:44:49.550+11:00Not a good analogy, kvd. Say you own a widget fact...Not a good analogy, kvd. Say you own a widget factory and customers (the students) demand 4,000 widgets. You supply them. The fact that the customers may have made the wrong purchase decision is a different question. Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-89534104592895194572013-11-18T05:59:15.933+11:002013-11-18T05:59:15.933+11:00Well, even with the usual inaccuracy of most news ...Well, even with the usual inaccuracy of most news reports these days, I still think that if I owned a widget factory and the manager presented a business plan to produce 6,000 new widgets, against projected demand of 4,000, and with 40,000 shiney new ones already in stock, then I would fire him and either redeploy the production facility, or mothball it.<br /><br />And it is because of this simple analogy that I am assuming the press report is wildly wrong.<br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-66976203919895113772013-11-17T18:40:48.320+11:002013-11-17T18:40:48.320+11:00Hi kd. I took away three messages from this piece....Hi kd. I took away three messages from this piece. The first was the systemic reliance on casual teachers. The second, the oversupply. The third, the continuing shortage in certain areas despite the oversupply. <br /><br />As it happened, I was talking about the second Thursday in the context of Aboriginal teachers who have been unable to get work.<br /><br />The problem as I see it lies not in the number of teachers graduating, but in the expectation that just because you get a specific vocational qualification you will get a job in that area. This holds for all qualifications. It's just not possible to fine tune supply and demand. If teaching graduates can't get other jobs, then another question arises, the suitability of the qual as a general entry level qualification.<br /><br />You can do something in a limited way about the third, action to meet very specific needs. Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-23673513590867678982013-11-17T17:50:28.828+11:002013-11-17T17:50:28.828+11:00More statistics this time I think just NSW-related...More statistics this time I think just NSW-related? <br /><br /><i>Each year, about 2200 new permanent teachers are appointed to public schools. But last year, there were about 6353 teaching graduates, up from 4669 in 2003, according to department estimates</i><br /><br />- from http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/teaching-40000-looking-for-permanent-jobs-20131116-2xnln.html#ixzz2ksklpiV0<br /><br />"40,000"? I cannot see the justification for ongoing public financing of what is essentially at least a ten year over-supply - be it NSW or Aus as a whole. Sooner or later that 'free that is not free' tertiary education will have to be more efficiently directed to those quals projected to be needed at graduation - with the other graduates paying their own way up front. <br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-32234998824503157012013-11-17T11:06:22.244+11:002013-11-17T11:06:22.244+11:00That would be utopian, Ramana.I fear, however, tha...That would be utopian, Ramana.I fear, however, that we are entering an age where we simply have more have-nots in developed economies. Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-78105286661768139982013-11-16T23:10:07.361+11:002013-11-16T23:10:07.361+11:00This is happening in all the so called advanced na...This is happening in all the so called advanced nations and the growing nations to a lesser extent. I suspect that we may be entering a period of readjustment to our life styles to a new paradigm. Something like a much simpler than the present ones. Like lower work days/hours per week, less consumption, and all the resultant adjustments! Utopian what?Rummuserhttp://www.rummuser.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-91308480918384405772013-11-16T10:01:38.392+11:002013-11-16T10:01:38.392+11:00:)Recognition will come later!:)Recognition will come later!Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-25474615877581280122013-11-16T08:50:28.996+11:002013-11-16T08:50:28.996+11:00Looking at Table 01 from here http://www.abs.gov.a...Looking at Table 01 from here http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6291.0.55.001Sep%202013?OpenDocument my brief and entirely superficial impression is that:<br /><br />- the single greatest factor inhibiting full-time employment of females is marriage, and<br /><br />- the single biggest factor prodding males into looking for work of any sort is, again, marriage.<br /><br />Therefore in the interests of a level playing field (and of course all other things being equal, etc. etc.) I would propose that we legislate that (between the ages of 15 and 70):<br /><br />- no woman be permitted to marry, and<br /><br />- all men must be married.<br /><br />I expect appropriate recognition for this insight in due course :)<br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com