tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post4092735863638603951..comments2024-02-11T19:28:27.997+11:00Comments on Personal Reflections: Belshaw's assessment of the Australian economic outlook 2014Jim Belshawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-65611508589919158292013-12-22T23:40:19.341+11:002013-12-22T23:40:19.341+11:00Hi kvd, and thanks. Compliments to you and yours a...Hi kvd, and thanks. Compliments to you and yours as well. The US has, I think, a two year deal on the budget. The latest economic date confirms the strengthening of the US economy. There are other risks and potential shocks, but so far so good!Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-48242595195455373692013-12-21T16:36:07.511+11:002013-12-21T16:36:07.511+11:00Hi Jim, and compliments of the approaching season ...Hi Jim, and compliments of the approaching season to you, and your loved ones.<br /><br />I think your referenced overview is reasonable, only if you disregard a few potential speedbumps.<br /><br />To begin with, while I would dearly love to see a politics (here and OS)-free level playing field, I think you are maybe not taking very much into account regarding both US and regional political pressure points.<br /><br />In the US, the 'debt ceiling' which caused so much angst comes into play Jan-Feb I think. Then there's the Affordable Health Care Act which isn't - affordable, universal, settled or even past first base as to registration as yet - never mind interfacing with the insurers in a reliable fashion. Add in mid-term elections, and several simmering scandals which will not go away; I think anyone who believes the US will have a benign 2014 (they sneeze, we catch cold, etc.) is in denial.<br /><br />I think the US suffers from "too much democracy, lacklustre leadership". And I believe this will affect us.<br /><br />Then there's regional players. How do you honestly see a freeing up of both investment and spending against a backdrop of the tensions between China and Japan, Indonesia and Aus., India and Pakistan, the withdrawal (i.e. return to tribalism) from Afghanistan - this is ignoring tensions in PNG and South Africa, and the north-south EU divide?<br /><br />I sometimes wonder if one day soon we Aussies will wander out onto the level playing field for a game of cricket, but have no-one to play with - 'cause they are all too busy self-destructing.<br /><br />Anyway - Happy NY and all that.<br /><br />kvdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com