tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post5480353858960037326..comments2024-02-11T19:28:27.997+11:00Comments on Personal Reflections: Kondratiev cycles, innovation and over-regulationJim Belshawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-14213894967074615812008-07-09T06:33:00.000+10:002008-07-09T06:33:00.000+10:00Good morning, Bob. Glad to see you about. I will r...Good morning, Bob. Glad to see you about. I will respond in a full post later today. Gives me a good opportunity to extend the discussion.Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-84852396919418746952008-07-08T18:02:00.000+10:002008-07-08T18:02:00.000+10:00Dear Jim,Rubbish. :)The reason you haven't heard o...Dear Jim,<BR/><BR/>Rubbish. :)<BR/><BR/>The reason you haven't heard of Kondratiev cycles since uni is because they lacked both provability, predictive force and explicative force (i.e. they stand as an article of faith).<BR/><BR/>Why? because the period of the cycle is defined post-hoc, which is why long term can mean anything from 30 years to 70 years or in some writers' belief 150 years. So much happens in such a cycle that to ascribe it to a single factor beggars belief.<BR/><BR/>Secondly, because the timing is post hoc, so is the explanation, which means that thirdly there is no predictive force.<BR/><BR/>You blithely talk about the exhaustion of the ICT wave - I see terabyte desktop machines for less than $A1500, when Paxus (now extinct) had a 20 terabyte facility in Canberra that was the largest or second largest in the southern hemisphere less than 20 years ago.<BR/><BR/>IMHO Moore's law continues to operate but it allows rigidities like onerous record keeping and all the other up-the-down-escalator brakes on progress, some of which are justified and some of which are not.<BR/><BR/>Over-regulation is indeed a key problem, but its relationship to ICT of Kondratiev is about the same as mine to the consumption of Resch's Pilsener (a near zero correlation, which if anything is negative).<BR/><BR/>How is your silver bullet campaign going, BTW.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com