tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post9109542118026233465..comments2024-02-11T19:28:27.997+11:00Comments on Personal Reflections: Saturday Morning Musings - political and economic ramblingsJim Belshawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-79408889042487308182015-06-29T08:08:02.864+10:002015-06-29T08:08:02.864+10:00Thanks, Winton. I broadly agree with you last poin...Thanks, Winton. I broadly agree with you last point, although trade diversion always damages somebody. <br /><br />Very interesting, 2T. That confirms my understanding of what happened. The agreement did indeed prove a something of a bonanza for Australia. Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-79206809350134231402015-06-28T22:49:46.575+10:002015-06-28T22:49:46.575+10:00The wine agreement was driven by a French and Ital...The wine agreement was driven by a French and Italian domination of the EU wine industry and a perception from them that their geographical denominations (like burgundy, or champagne) were the be-all and end-all to wine marketing. They were quite willing to offer access to Australian wine which had long been refused. Some of the claims were pretty cheeky such as claret and port, but hasn't resulted in lasting damage to Australia. The point was, the EU was under internal pressure that we could never have imposed. We had tried and failed.<br /><br />The side game was also to try and put pressure on the US to do the same. Didn't work.<br /><br />I'm biased, but I would argue that at that stage, Australian wines were superior to French wines *at any price point*. Maybe a $200 bottle of Grange wasn't as good as a $1000 bottle of Chateau Romany Conti, but a $34 bottle of Bin 386 would knock the pants off any $50 Burgundy. <br /><br />Most consumers agreed with my point of view. Australia's exports went up by a factor of 10 in about 5 years. if I recall correctly.2 tannersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-85272501785421233722015-06-28T19:29:53.318+10:002015-06-28T19:29:53.318+10:00Jim,
I don't know the answer. While working t...Jim, <br />I don't know the answer. While working there on agricultural policy I gained the impression that PNG has not given a high priority to bilateral and regional trade negotiations. I think that priority is right. PNG has more important problems to contend with. And I think there are already enough ways for deserving PNG bureaucrats to be paid to see the world without engaging in trade diversion activities. <br />However, it will be unfortunate if we end up with bilateral and regional agreements that disadvantage non-signatories.Winton Bateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07383561940886657594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-37117992242337031722015-06-28T18:48:57.611+10:002015-06-28T18:48:57.611+10:00I'm sorry that you lost your comment, 2T! What...I'm sorry that you lost your comment, 2T! What were the advantages as you saw them in wine and brandy? I agree with you on the question of relative balance, although this is usually expressed in terms of the smaller partner getting the greater benefit! <br /><br />Winton, I agree with your first two sentences. PNG is interesting. Is PNG pursuing any free trade agreements? Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-28125081020224879632015-06-28T10:44:30.157+10:002015-06-28T10:44:30.157+10:00Hi Jim
I had hoped that the preferential trading a...Hi Jim<br />I had hoped that the preferential trading arrangements would help advance a more general round of trade liberalisation. That looks like a forlorn hope. There is political and bureaucratic diversion to contend with as well as trade diversion. Trade bureaucrats can only think of one thing at a time.<br />We should also spare a thought for the countries that seem to get left out of these preferential deals e.g. PNG.Winton Bateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07383561940886657594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-52937757939085700812015-06-27T23:06:11.523+10:002015-06-27T23:06:11.523+10:00Pox, I wrote a response to this but it has gotten ...Pox, I wrote a response to this but it has gotten lost, as has the clipboard copy.<br /><br />In short, I was the director for wine and brandy in Australia and saw the finale of the wine negotiations very close up. The advantages for Australia were amazing, meaning that a TPP which does not favour us will damage us. It is pretty much a zero sum game. One that we will lose without either an odd advantage or being the gorilla in the room.<br /><br />Consultation is fine, but what about agreement to the final (secret) text?2 tannersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-25123675964151265732015-06-27T11:27:02.093+10:002015-06-27T11:27:02.093+10:00The wine case is fascinating, 2t. Now I'm not ...The wine case is fascinating, 2t. Now I'm not sure how all the bits fit together, but the action by the French in protecting their geographical nomenclature was one of the best things that could have happened because it forced the Australian industry to a dual response: a focus on grape varieties plus our own geographical nomenclature. That created a new playing field that actually damaged the French position by diminishing their brand advantage. <br /><br />On the other agreements, my understanding is that thy do involve industry consultation. Jim Belshawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075614280789984767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24338064.post-45977261990412448552015-06-27T11:00:26.174+10:002015-06-27T11:00:26.174+10:00I view most TPPs to which we are party as a bad th...I view most TPPs to which we are party as a bad thing. This will probably be another but no-one can be sure. Its contents will remain secret until after it is approved.<br /><br />We do not have the bargaining power to get a good deal, particularly in the case of multilateral negotiations. Probably the best example of this is the wine agreement with the EU, in which we were the winners, because the French were so desperate to cut a deal. There's an academic paper out, using this as the exception which actually proves the rule, about small nations negotiating with large nations or economic blocs.<br /><br />Also, what is it about the TPP which is so secret that the people who are going to be affected by it are not allowed to see it?<br /><br />Finally, I have relatively little confidence that trade officials who by and large have never run a trading enterprise in their lives can be relied upon to give the best advice to Government. And yet only their voice will be heard.The trade officials in question have a 100% negative batting average (again in my view) as the EU wine agreement was negotiated with the Agriculture department and I view as as losers on all the others with the exception of the NZ agreement in which we were the gorilla.2 tannersnoreply@blogger.com