Friday, March 27, 2015


Friday! I wonder where the week went? Just two pieces of writing so far this outside purely work stuff, although comments on the Monday Forum post continue.

I think most of us have read/watched the evolving story Germanwings flight 9525 with increasing horror. Those last minutes with the pilot beating on the cockpit door trying to get back in and then the screams. I have to say that it really shook me.

Tomorrow is the NSW election. I was wrong about Queensland, I didn't see the preference spray, but I will chance my hand again. The Coalition to be returned, with the Nationals and then the Greens as the big losers. Labor may lose, but it will recover. The Nats may be back in Coalition Government again, but face the probable loss of three seats.

But why the Greens? My feeling is that the Greens will fail to win any Legislative Assembly seats, although they may pick up a little in the Legislative Council vote. Anybody disagree with me?

 For myself, I more or less know how I want to vote in the Upper House although I have a little more research to do, but my choice in the Lower House is very unpalatable. I am prepared to give one of the major parties my second preference, but only after voting for someone else first. Just a little protest there. But can I actually vote for the choices I have?

And, finally, something via Facebook.


The NSW results were interesting. The Nats did a little better than I expected, the Greens more so.

I based my assessment of the likely Green position on two seat polls. The Green vote was higher than that indicated by the polls.  .

The Greens are clearly getting better at targeting their efforts. The overall Green vote did not increase, a disappointing result for them at that level. However, it did increase where it counted most.

As I write, the Greens have held Balmain and won Newtown. Both seats are inner Sydney. They have won Ballina and may win Lismore, adjoining Northern Rivers seats. Lismore is still somewhat uncertain. Two variables are in play: there are still a fair number of votes to be counted, while in an optional preferential system we don't know how many Labor voters actually preferenced the Greens.

Regardless of the final result, the Greens have consolidated their hold in inner Sydney and established an electoral beach head in the Northern Rivers. This is important for several reasons. So long as the local members perform well as local grass root members, the Greens have the chance to extend their reach into adjoining seats with related demographics. They also have a base from which to attack the Federal seats covering the state seats. This threatens Labor in the inner city, Labor and Nationals in the Northern Rivers.

So far as the Nats are concerned, they held Monaro, Tamworth and Upper Hunter.

Barwon, Upper Hunter and Tamworth were all seats affected by mining and cold seam gas.

Barwon was always going to be retained, although the Nats suffered a 25% swing. Tamworth was a different case, with former independent member Peter Draper running again. I had put Tamworth in the very uncertain basket, but in the end National member Kevin Anderson slightly increased his vote with a clear majority.

Upper Hunter was different again. As in Ballina (Geoff Page), a long serving National member (George Souris) was standing down.

On a purely personal level, their departure marked a break with my own past, a sign, I guess, of aging! Geoff and I were involved many years ago in attempts to revitalise the Country Party, while I knew George from school. Both have been good local members and contributors to National Party survival.

There was a swing of almost 15% against the Nationals in Upper Hunter, but they held the seat. There is an important subtext issue here.In holding the inland mining/coal seam gas seats, the Nats have actually headed off an extremely dangerous threat.

Monaro is different again. I really thought that the National's John Barilaro would lose to former member Steve Whan. In fact, John achieved a swing to him of 1.5%. Again, there is a personal factor at play here. It gives me a certain pleasure that my efforts all those years ago in working to re-establish  the Country Part in Monaro still have a degree of relevance. I really like Queanbeyan, but it was a battle trying to break Labor entrenchment.As best I can work out without detailed addition, Labor still won Queanbeyan this time, but only just.

 In this election, Labor re-established its hold in the Lower Hunter. Mired in electoral corruption scandals, the Libs sank without trace. There is now not a single Liberal member left in Northern NSW. It's all National/Labor/Green.

Well, that ends my electoral coverage here for the moment. Time to move on to other issues.

Update 2

Well, the votes in  Ballina and Lismore have been fluctuating, with late counting favouring the Nationals. The most likely outcome now appears to be Ballina Green, with the Nationals holding Lismore.         . .       .  


Anonymous said...

There was a time I would have innocently applauded that, but then there's this:


Winton Bates said...

kvd: I was until a few minutes ago blissfully unaware of the concept of jazz hands. Now I feel anxious. Is there no end to this nonsense?

Anonymous said...

Just 'cause we all love predicting - I think Foley may just tip Mr Baird, if one allows for some sort of L/G coalition. Almost certainly Mr Baird will have to look for a "plan B" given he won't get the upper house, even if my prediction is incorrect.

And I think the Nats have not been served well by being asked to forsake some of their old-country core values. (Selling the farm; undermining God's country; etc. You name it, they've somehow signed onto it)

Off to buy some popcorn :)


ps Winton in speaking of modern feminism, it is most impolite to use that particular n-word.

Winton Bates said...

kvd: I see some interesting swings against the Nats in hippy central.
I wonder whether the Greens are clapping with jazz hands.

2 tanners said...

You really can't imagine that this result will be filling the Federal government with glee. Mike Baird, although popular, was always going to lose some seats coming off the huge anti-Labor swing from last time. However, 8.5% to Labor is not flash. A Nat with a 25% margin possibly losing to a Green must be a worry. What will the marginal NSW members sitting in Canberra be thinking tonight?

Jim Belshaw said...

Hi all. I have added a more detailed analysis to this post. Federally, I don't think that the result really counts in the sense that all parties can take immediate comfort from it.

Jazz hands, kvd? That's an astonishing tweet. This, by the way, is the wikipedia entry on jazz hands -

Dr Purva Pius said...
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