One was on the result of the Brexit referendum. I knew that it might be close but simply didn't believe that the leave case would get up, although I was reasonably accurate in predicting the geographic distribution of the vote. The second was Donald Trump.
I think that in both cases I allowed my perception of what I thought was sensible (or not) to influence my judgement. In the Brexit case, I thought that it was sensible for Britain to stay in the EU. In the Trump case, I thought that some of his expressed views were so way of the planet that no one would take them seriously.
latest storm, the release of a 2005 video containing remarks about women that could only be described as gross, may be another case in point. It is one thing to think that the remarks are gross, a second to conclude that because they are they have done permanent damage to his campaign. There is an element of "should hurt" in this thinking.
I have no idea what the political effect will be. The polls suggest that Mrs Clinton is in front. You would think that this would further damage Mr Trump's campaign, but I just doesn't know.
A bit like Brexit, I haven't really assessed the results of a Trump victory in global terms because it has seemed so unlikely. I guess that we will all know soon enough. In the meantime, and as a previous avid watcher of The Apprentice, .I would like to be able to say following the election, Mr Trump, you are fired!
2 Tanners included this funny if bad doggerel in comments on the recent presidential debate: