Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Australia's economic conundrums

Like many Australians, I listened to the Treasurer's budget speech last night. Those who are interested can find the full budget papers here. I then browsed some of the reporting and budget material.

From the viewpoint of an interested observer, I found the speech hard to follow. I also found some of the budget material almost eye glazing. Because of my background, I have a special interest in regional issues. On the busy person quick scan test, the regional document failed.

This is really a criticism of words and presentation; public policy rhetoric - investing in Australia's regions, building Australia's future work force: trained up and ready for work etc - plus the usual pictures doesn't really help understanding. 

Outside broad parameters, the devil with budgets is always in the detail. So I will look at that and come back. For the moment, I want to stand back from the detail and look at some of the underlying issues, for Australia's present economic position is remarkably complicated for a Government trying to manage the politics as well as the economics.

The Government's approach aims to return the budget to surplus in 2012-2013. To my mind that's prudent. One of the reasons Australia came through the global financial crisis so well lay in the Australian Government's sound financial position. The Government could spend on stimulatory measures without incurring the debt levels found in so many other countries.

The global economic outlook remains uncertain. Australia's growth is heavily dependent on growth in China in particular, and there are uncertainties and risks there. So a return to budget surplus gives us a greater measure of security.

Two linked issues now arise.

The first is the extent of what economists call a structural deficit in the budget.

Start from the premise that current expenditure over time should be balanced by current income. I say current because capital expenditure raises different issues. During downturns, the budget goes into deficit, during upturns into surplus. These balance over time.

A structural deficit means that current income and expenditure do not balance over time. In the longer term, we have to borrow to fund current consumption. Alternatively, we suddenly have to cut basic expenditure in the way that Greece is doing.

Some economists argue that Australia actually has a structural deficit that has been concealed by the mining booms. I haven't done the detailed analysis required to check their arguments, but I suspect that there is some truth to the view. However, I also suspect that it's not as bad as sometimes presented.

However, this brings me to the second linked issue, the assumptions built into the budget.

Just at present, the Australian Government is in a bit of a pickle.

The projections suggest a mining investment boom. However, the domestic economy is presently flat, leading to lower revenues now with prospective revenues later. The Government wants to free up resources to avoid later problems, but that affects present activity.

Pretty obviously, the budget is vulnerable because of the nature of the assumptions involved. If the mining boom mark II is less than projected, then the deficit will be higher and more extended than projected. Beyond that, the Government faces real immediate difficulties because of variations in the Australian economy across space and among groups. The term patchwork economy has been coined to describe this.

The averages used to describe Australian economic performance conceal variation. Many Australians are hurting in economic terms. This is reflected in the Government's low opinion poll ratings.

The consumer price index may still be within the Reserve Bank's target range, but increased rents, food and utility prices are hurting lower income Australians since they bulk large in spend. The high Australian dollar flowing from the mining boom is hurting manufacturing and tourism. Flat retail sales hurt that sector. Nominal unemployment may be relatively flow,  but it varies greatly among groups and over space.

One simple measure of business pain is the sharp rise in the number of corporate insolvencies.

If we accept that the broad parameters of the budget are okay, if we accept that resources need to be freed and re-directed to meet the needs of mining boom mark II, then another issue comes in. To what degree will all the Government's measures actually do this.

This issue has nothing to do with the budget per se, everything to do with the validity and likely impact of the specific measures in question. This can only be answered by a detailed individual analysis.

I have yet to attempt this.             

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

When perfection's not possible: Gillard & refugees

My first quick reaction to the PM's Malaysian proposal, Gillard's refugee deal, was positive as one step in a possible broader solution. That reaction is not shared by many of my blogging colleagues. See, for example:

Given this, I thought that I would set out the principles/issues that underlay my reaction simply and without supporting argument:

  1. The Howard Government's refugee policies were part of a pattern of behaviour that, at the end, swung me against that Government. The refugee policy may have stopped the boats, but it came at a high human cost and was (as I saw it) part of a progressive dehumanisation of Government.
  2. The initial policies of the new Labor Government may or may not have been sensible, but they were a reaction to Howard Government policies. However, Labor then became trapped in the political get tough rhetoric. Just as Mr Howard's policies ignored key regional dynamics, so East Timor regional processing got thrown in without thought.
  3. The Howard policy was simple. Make things tough at this end and we stop the boats. Mr Abbott's single minded rhetoric on the issue has been effective only because of apparent failures in Labor policy, as well as Labor's failure to articulate a clear alternative approach.
  4. Both the Howard and, to a degree, the Rudd-Gillard approach were crafted for domestic consumption and really didn't take into account broader issues.
  5. The refugee problem is complex. Further, the problems that countries like Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia face are large compared to ours in terms of numbers and resources.

Turning now to the specifics that guided my instinctive reaction:

  1. There is no such thing as perfection.
  2. For a number of reasons including politics and humanity, we have to stop the boats. We have two choices: we can go the Abbott/Howard route or an alternative. None of those attacking the Gillard proposal have really put forward an alternative. If the current opinion polls continue, Mr Abbott may well win the next election.
  3. The Government is, I think, reaching towards a regional framework that will provide a more sensible approach. That can only be underpinned in the end if we take more refugees.

I am well aware of issues associated with Malaysia's treatment of refugees. I am old enough, among other things, to remember the treatment of Vietnamese boat people. That, it seems to me, is a matter to be dealt with in negotiation.

Postscript

Ken Parish's In Praise of Gillard’s Malaysia Solution on Club Troppo provides another perspective on the Gillard proposals.  

Monday, May 09, 2011

Australia's Free Trade Agreements

As foreshadowed at the end of yesterday's post, ASEAN, Indonesia & Australia, this post provides a simple stocktake of the current position on Australia's various free trade agreements.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade contains the following list:  

Australia's Free Trade Agreements

Free Trade Agreements under negotiation

Free Trade Agreements under consideration

On 13 December 2010, the Australian Productivity Commission released an evaluation of the various free trade agreements, Bilateral and Regional Trade Agreements Research report. This expressed caution about the perceived benefits.

In April, the Gillard Government released a new trade policy statement, Trading our way to more jobs and prosperity.

Sunday, May 08, 2011

ASEAN, Indonesia & Australia

I jotted down Gillard's refugee deal as a quick response to the Australian PM's announcement. Interesting to see the subsequent Australian political and media reaction. I won't comment at this point beyond noting that the commentary jammed the whole thing into past frames.

If the refugee issue achieved major national coverage, the same cannot be said for the 18th ASEAN Summit. There is zero coverage this morning in the on-line editions of both the Australian and the Sydney Morning Herald. If this an example of what I mentioned in India, Australia and Asia, the decline in Australia's interest in Asia or what Michael Wesley calls 'insular internationalists'?

ASEAN has declined in importance, I think, in a general sense. India and China are far more important than they were when Australian interest in ASEAN was at its peak, when Malaysian PM Mahathir kept Australia waiting in the lobbies, blocking increased involvement. Yet you would still think that ASEAN was of sufficient importance as this country's immediate neighbour to warrant some coverage.

In this case I got sufficiently frustrated that I actually went in search of coverage. You will find the official summit web site here.

Necessarily, things such as the present Thai/Cambodian conflict as well as problems with Burma (the generals want their chance to chair ASEAN) affect Summit discussions. However, these things pass. There is also an issue with diplomat speak, the way that discussion at all these international gatherings gets clouded in language that acts to conceal as much as reveal.

In opening the Summit, the Indonesian President suggested that there were three priorities from an Indonesian perspective:     

The three priorities are : to ensure the attainment of concrete progress in realizing the ASEAN Community; to ensure the maintenance of order and condition in the region favorable for the achievement of development objectives,through the East Asia Summit, while maintaining the centrality of ASEAN; and to ensure successful discussion on the urgent need for a "post 2015 ASEAN" vision, namely the role of the ASEAN Community in the  global community of nations."

In the full text of his speech, the Indonesian President referred to the increasingly complex international environment.

ASEAN is responsible to responding to dynamic conflict that may influence the image of ASEAN and sustainable peace in our region.  If conflict occurs, ASEAN must be capable of facilitating a forum for diplomacy and open dialogue with the intent of attaining common peace

He also referred to climate change, to global population growth and to the issues posed for ASEAN by the need for energy and food security. "The competition for energy, for food, and for clean water will become part of the global competition", the President noted.

We need not to forecast what would happen in ten or twenty years in the future, we are already facing food and energy price fluctuations that attend to continue rising globally....

We must give serious attention and take concrete measures to address the soaring of food prices and world energy, which in turn will negatively affect the prosperity of our people. History shows that the rise of food and energy prices usually cause has always caused the increase in the number of people living in poverty. Yet we know very well that decreasing the poverty level is not an easy task.

He went on:

We have just passed the period of global economic and financial crisis that has yet to recover. At the same time, we have to deal with the climate change problem that has been causing damages in littoral and island states, and other countries. We can no longer argue that human migration in large number continues to take place, irregularly and illegally, so that it creates many political, social, security problems, not only in countries of destination, but also in transit countries.

Other serious challenge is concerning disaster striking quite frequently in our region. We realize that our region is prone to disaster. An example of this is the the earthquake and tsunami that struck the eastern part of Japan just two months ago. Thousands of people perished and unaccounted loss of property and infrastructure. That reminds us of the tsunami that devastated Aceh seven years ago where thousands of people lost their lives and  huge material loss.

One of the difficulties I face in interpreting President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's remarks and the proposed solutions and actions lies in my own lack of knowledge of some of the structures involved, as well as the power dynamics.

In the midst of all the chaff created by international organisations and by bi- and multi-lateral relations between countries, it can be very hard to identify the wheat at any point in time. However, over time, there is a natural winnowing effect as the chaff drops away.

ASEAN was formed on 8 August 1967. At the time it was formed, there were actually very few real linkages between South East Asian countries. ASEAN gave those countries a voice and influence that they could not have achieved on their own. Further, even though attempts to create closer economic relations between ASEAN countries were initially ineffective, those links did grow with time.

In 1983 I came back to the Australian Department of Industry and Commerce after a period of post graduate study at the University of New England. Then Trade Minister and Deputy PM Doug Anthony had become interested in the question of an Asian Free Trade Area and asked the Bureau of Industry Economics to look at the issue. I was asked to carry out the task, supported by Noel Benjamin from the Bureau.

As we worked our way through the country by country detail of trade patterns and trade barriers including all the ASEAN countries, the difficulties became clear. However, and unexpectedly from my viewpoint, we concluded that such a free trade area would benefit Australia. This was the the dying days of the Fraser Administration, so nothing happened.

As an aside, prior to this I hadn't looked in detail at the economics of either free trade areas or customs unions. One side effect of the study was that it gave me a framework to interpret the economic distributional effects flowing from the creation of an Australian customs union as a consequence of federation. I still use that framework today.

Looking at ASEAN in 1983, the combination of trade flows and trade barriers meant that ASEAN was still a long way from becoming a meaningful economic unit. To some degree, that's still true in 2011. The creation of an ASEAN equivalent of the EU by 2015 remains a complicated task. Yet over the long period since ASEAN was formed in 1967, you can see the progress.

Looking forward, ASEAN, Australia and New Zealand actually share common and complicated problems. The rise first of China and then of India create complex geopolitical issues. The exact relationship of each ASEAN country to the new environment varies, creating new difficulties for ASEAN in achieving common purpose.

I have argued that the relationship between Australia and ASEAN is one of the most important determinants in delineating out future. ANZ plus ASEAN is still large enough to provide a balancing block in a way that neither can do on their own.

Within ASEAN, Indonesia is critical from an Australian perspective because of its size and proximity. We just don't know enough about Indonesia. To illustrate, in his speech, the Indonesian President said:

Of course, it does not end there. There remains a lot that we have to do and work on together. We must make sure that the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity can be implemented effectively. In this regard, Indonesia is in the process of finishing the Master Plan Percepatan dan Perluasan Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia (Master Plan for Acceleration and Expanded Economic Growth of Indonesia/MP3EI), in order to boost the development of six economic corridors in Indonesia. I believe that what Indonesia is planning to do will boost the national economy and intra-Indonesian connectivity, as well as awaken ASEAN’s economy and speed up the construction of ASEAN connectivity.

Do you know what Indonesia's six economic corridors are? I don't. Yet I suspect that's more important to Australia's future than the question of refugees.

Postscript

Like me, Winton Bates had not heard of either the six corridors or the master plan. In the end, I did a search.

On trade policy more broadly, Winton referred me to this post by Peter Drysdale, Why Doha Round matters to Asia and the Pacific. There Peter said in part:

What leaders who have it in their power to do this deal must understand is that failure to conclude the Round now will put a stake in the heart of a multilateral system that is in retreat on all fronts, not solely for economic reasons at a critical stage of global recovery from financial and economic crisis, but for deep, geo-political reasons.

Europe is seriously weakened. The Middle East and Africa have brought the world to an intensely unstable moment. Far more importantly, the emergence of China in Asia and the Pacific challenges the established political order.

How does this all matter to the global trading system?

The multilateral trading system is the economic sinew that constrains the exercise of international political muscle in ways that damage global well being and inflicts national self-harm.

Should Doha fail now, there will be powerful momentum to doing other deals of some kind no matter what. In Washington, the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) is all the rage. Does it matter if we get yet another pseudo ‘free trade’ agreement, between the US and group of eight partners who in the total scheme of things are pretty insignificant?

Now I really hadn't focused on the Trans Pacific Partnership. I am not sure whether or not it's a good thing. But what I suddenly realised was the extent to which trade policy seems to have vanished from Australian national discussion. That's not a good thing.

The present mining boom is nice, but in the long term Australia's economic survival is best protected by freer trade at at a global level, and that is under threat.

Postscript 2

I hate not knowing things. Tomorrow I will bring up a summary of all of Australia's free trade agreements.

Postscript 3

Australia's Free Trade Agreements provides a list of current Australian free trade agreements.

Winton Bates' Has Australia's media dropped the ball in reporting on Asia and the Pacific? is a companion post to this one, providing Winton's perspective on the issues raised. 

Saturday, May 07, 2011

Gillard's refugee deal

I was going to write on this tomorrow, but decided to do so now because of its importance.

So long as there is conflict in the world, there will be refugees. There is no perfect solution to the problem.

The difficulty with the Howard/Abbott approach to boat people arriving in this country lay in the fact that it focused on the end of the chain, Australia. Maybe, just maybe, the Gillard Government is coming up with a better solution. Certainly it seems more coherent than Mr Abbott's.

The announcement today of a deal between Australia and Malaysia on refugees is important. It provides for the transshipment of  800 refugees from Australia to Malaysia for processing. That may be unfair, but solves an immediate problem. More importantly, the undertaking by Australia to take 4,000 refugees already residing in Malaysia over four years provides a direct benefit to Malaysia and eases up stream pressure.

Australia can afford to take more refugees. Our problem key has been the method of arrival.

If Australia takes more, if other countries also take more, if this is done in the context of regional processing centres such as that proposed, if the load is properly shared between countries, then we will stop the boats.

Mr Abbott's concept was never going to work properly because all it did was shift burden to others. Maybe there is a better way. 

6 May 1941 - a day at war

Reading World War II Day-By-Day, one of the things that I still find a bit staggering is the sheer scale of the conflict. Sure I know it's a World War, but its still a bit staggering.

To illustrate this, I have just taken 1 day, May 6, 1941, Day 614 since the war began. 

On Crete, the Allied commander, New Zealander General Freyberg, receives accurate intelligence (Ultra intercepts of poorly-coded Luftwaffe signals) on German plans for an airborne invasion of the island by 2 divisions on May 17. Freyberg does not believe a parachute attack is likely and continues to focus on the threat of amphibious landings with tanks.

After some delays, the German airborne invasion will begin on 20 May. Freyberg commands 14,000 British garrison troops plus 25,000 British and ANZACs evacuated from the Greek mainland and 9000 Greek troops. However, many are unarmed and most guns & vehicles have been abandoned on the mainland.

I covered the Cretan conflict in two of my Greek posts, Arrival in Iraklion and then An Australian dies in Crete.

That same day in Paris (May 6), senior German diplomat Otto Abetz and French Foreign Minister Admiral Darlan negotiate a preliminary agreement to send Vichy French war materiel in Syria to the Iraqis.  The Paris Protocols also allow Germany use of airbases in Syria to transport aircraft to Iraq. Luftwaffe Colonel Werner Junck is ordered to establish Fliegerführer Irak with 12 Messerschmitt Bf110 fighters and 12 Heinkel He111 bombers.

The Germans have in fact been a bit slow to get their act together.

In Iraq, Iraqi forces who were attacking RAF Habbaniya withdraw from the plateau overlooking the airfield having suffered 1000 casualties from RAF attacks.They are pursued by the King's Own Royal Regiment which routs the retreating Iraqi troops at the village of Sinn El Dhibban on the road back to Baghdad (433 Iraqis taken prisoner). British casualties are 7 killed and 14 wounded. The 21st Infantry Brigade, 10th Indian Infantry Division, disembarks at Basra to reinforce the British presence in Iraq.

As Nigel Davies pointed out in The deployment of Allied land forces in 1942, the potential German threat to Iraq in 1941 and 1942 required the continued deployment of Imperial and Commonwealth troops in a theatre away from immediate conflicts.

In Ethiopia, East Africa, troops of the 3/2nd Punjab battalion are recovering after their failed attempt the day before to attack the Italian stronghold at Amba Alagi. They attacked as dawn broke on May 5, but got held up in barbed wire and are pinned down by 12 Italian machineguns only 500 yards ahead (8 killed, 28 wounded). They wait all day under fire to retreat after dark.

Much of the fighting around Amba Alagi has been done by Indian troops. In addition to the 3/2nd Punjab battalion, fighting has involved the 5th Indian Division and 6/13th Frontier Force Rifles battalion. The 1st South African Brigade was also involved, moving towards Amba Alagi from the south.

That same day, 5 May, Ethiopian Emperor Haile Selassie triumphantly returns to his capital Addis Ababa, 5 years to the day since fleeing the Second Italo-Abyssinian War.

Further north, the siege of Tobruk continues. Following the failure of German and Italian attack on Tobruk, General Paulus, representing the German High Command, had suggested to Rommel on 4 May that he abandon the attacks at Tobruk in favour of a passive siege to starve the defenders into submission. Rommel creates a ring of posts to limit Allied sorties outside the wire, while the Luftwaffe will try to prevent resupply of the Tobruk garrison by sea.

The next day, the besieged Allied garrison at Tobruk is resupplied by Navy warships for the first time when Australian destroyers HMAS Voyager & HMAS Waterhen complete the round trip from Alexandria to Tobruk overnight.

Elsewhere, the war at sea continues.

Off Sierra Leone, U-103 and U-105 sink 3 more British freighters (12 killed, 100 survivors). U-103 rights a swamped lifeboat to accommodate more survivors from one steamer. 500 miles West of Ireland, U-97 sinks British ocean boarding vessel HMS Camito and Italian tanker SS Sangro which she is escorting to Britain (28 killed, survivors picked up by corvette HMS Orchis). Off the coast of Italy, British submarines HMS Taku and HMS Truant sink Italian steamers Cagliari and Bengasi.

This brings on my count the number of ships sunk in seven days by submarines or bombing to 28 - 15 British, 8 Italian, 3 German and one each from Sweden and Norway.

You see what I mean by scale, recognising that war with Japan was still some months away.

Friday, May 06, 2011

Musings on the new UN population projections

Just a few notes this morning. The UN has released new global population projections. You will find them here. I quote from the official press release.

The current world population of close to 7 billion is projected to reach 10.1 billion in the next ninety years, reaching 9.3 billion by the middle of this century, according to the medium variant of the 2010 Revision of World Population Prospects, the official United Nations population projections prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, which is being launched today (3 May). Much of this increase is projected to come from the high-fertility countries, which comprise 39 countries in Africa, nine in Asia, six in Oceania and four in Latin America.There is some interesting stuff there.

There is some interesting stuff there for those interested in demography. The following table shows some of the UN mid range projections for Australia's immediate region. Comments follow the table. 

Country/region Population 2015 '000 Population 2050 '000 Population 2100 '000
Asia 4 375 482 5 142 220 4 596 224
Australia 23 793 31 385 35 908
Australia/New Zealand 28 394 37 063 42 232
Bangladesh 158 317 194 353 157 134
China 1 369 743 1 295 604 941 042
Fiji 896 1 017 1 005
India 1 308 221 1 692 008 1 550 899
Indonesia 251 880 293 456 254 178
Japan 126 072 108 549 91 330
Malaysia 30 714 43 455 46 946
Oceania 39 355 55 233 65 819
New Zealand 4 601 5 678 6 323
Papua New Guinea 7 645 13 549 18 113
Pakistan 189 648 274 875 261 271
Philippines 101 421 160 604 177 803
Republic of Korea 49 120 47 050 37 221
Singapore 5 375 6 106 5 659
Sri Lanka 21 709 23 193 19 888
Timor-Leste 1 301 3 006 4 742
Vietnam 92 443 103 962 82 604

Like all projections, they are just that, projections. The Australian numbers are arguably too low, less than the equivalent Australian mid-range projections. That said, I just want to point briefly to a few key points:

You can see the total Asian population peak and then decline. This seems to happen faster than I remember from pervious projections. I haven't checked.

The exact country pattern within Asia will be affected by migration. The Japanese, for example, have reservations about new settlers. I wonder whether they will maintain that as aging and population decline continues?

By contrast to Asia, Australia and New Zealand show continued population growth. Their population remains miniscule compared to Asia, but is projected to rise from the equivalent of .65% of the Asian population to .78%!

One of the things I love about Australia and New Zealand is the constantly changing diversity of the two countries because of their open-door non-discriminatory migration policies. As an entrails' watcher, I like working out what might happen next,

Now look here at the population numbers for Oceania, essentially ANZ plus the PNG and the Pacific Islands. They are projected to rise from 39.4 million to 65.8 million, heavily driven by growth in PNG.

One side effect of that is likely to be a major rise in the both the absolute numbers of and proportion of the Pacific island population in both Australia and New Zealand. This really began first in NZ, but then spread to Australia, in part because of the free movement of peoples between the two countries.

   People sometimes talk about the Asianisation of Australia and New Zealand and especially Sydney and Auckland. While this is misleading, Asian is a geographic descriptor that acts to conceal diversity, it is sometimes a somewhat useful descriptive tool. However, while I am sure that the total Asian proportion of the Australian and New Zealand population will continue to rise over the next twenty years, I suspect that the Pacific component will rise faster. Further, I expect that the composition of the Asian population will change.

Australia and New Zealand will never be able to match the growing economic attractiveness of India and China and perhaps other Asian countries as well. You can just make more money in these countries than you can in ANZ.

However, I also suspect that our non-discriminatory immigration policies and relatively open societies are likely to become increasingly powerful economic weapons in the battle across Asia for skilled workers and professionals flowing from an aging population. Why put up with the hassle of gaining entry to a China or Japan when ANZ is easier?

If I'm right, then this is going to be pretty important in the years ahead.       

Thursday, May 05, 2011

Cognitive bias and the practice of law

This post is for Legal Eagle.

In a post at the start of May I wrote:

Staying with Club Troppo, Ken Parish's Rooting out Cognitive Bias 101seeks advice - a wisdom of crowds thing - on some seminars in jurisprudence seeking to correct perceptual bias. This led skepticlawyer to write a companion piece, Crowdsourcing bleg – getting lawyers to think creatively.

Now this must seem pretty dry stuff, and in some ways it is. However, bear with me for a moment.

One of the issues that I have been trying to think through is the reason why lawyers so often fail to address the real needs of their clients. This is directly related to cognitive bias installed during legal training, as well as the dynamics of the profession.

I decided to write a companion post, but found it almost impossible. Both Ken and SL address the issue from a macro level whereas my concern is very micro, professional failure in the handling of individual matters. I do want to write something on this, for I actually spend a lot of time on this blog trying to address cognitive bias, the way in which our mental frameworks affect our perceptions and judgements. However, it will have to wait.

Legal Eagle encouraged me to write my post. Normally I would put it on my Managing the Professional Services Firm blog, although my purely professional writing is suffering just at present. However, I decided to say something here because this blog has a wider audience.

In considering the brief remarks that follow, I think that it would be helpful to keep in mind that:

  • Lawyers are trained to think in terms of law and legal responses.
  • Legal agreements of all types are simply the legal wrapping placed around a transaction or arrangement. A fair bit of law is linked in one way or another to the interpretation of that wrapping. 
  • Transactions generally fail not because of the legal wrapping, but because of failures in the transaction or arrangement.

Issues

In medicine, the first thing a doctor does is to undertake a diagnostic.

No doctor worth his professional salt would take what the patient says and simply prescribe based on that. Have a bad headache, here is a powerful pain killer. Yet this is what many lawyers actually do. Here's my transaction or arrangement. Please draw up a contract  or arrangement. Yes, client.

I accept that clients are their own worst enemy. I accept that we live in a just in time world in which clients have too little time to think and then issue skimpy email instructions expecting an instant response since its now at the top of their mind. Still, the reality is that lawyers are not trained in diagnostic techniques that force the client to define and test the detail of what they have in mind. Not the law, but the underlying transaction.

The case studies included in this post are all actual if disguised examples 

Case study. A Government agency was concerned about a GST issue. They went to a leading law firm seeking advice and a tax ruling. The law firm did not test the client's thinking, but simply accepted the instruction. The client did not fully understand what they were doing, nor the advice provided. Finally, the assignment was cancelled when the client realised that what they wanted could not work for practical policy reasons. The cost to the taxpayer was over $57,000. The failure was foreseeable.

Once the instructions have been issued, the legal document is drawn up. Most legal documents incorporate a series of standard clauses - definitions, remedies etc. For efficiency reasons, most law firms use templates and clause libraries to streamline the process. Nothing wrong with that, but!

Anybody who has seen a variety of legal agreements will agree that some of the clauses seem a little strange, even over-kill. This reflects the fact that the lawyer has not thought through properly the underlying purpose of the agreement. Play it safe and slot the past in.

During this drafting process, failures in the diagnostic increase costs. This leads to higher costs on both sides through a more extended drafting process. It also increases risk compounded by the mechanistic drafting process. 

Case study. The matter involved a joint commercialisation venture between a private company and a research institution to commercialise technology. The two parties had worked together well for some time. The challenge was express the new arrangement in a way that reflected agreed principles while terminating previous agreements.

The initial legal material supplied by the lawyer representing one party was unclear and missed several important steps. The new arrangements required intellectual property (IP) to be clearly specified. The other lawyer investigated and found problems in the definition of IP. When the lawyer tried to insist that the IP be properly specified, the impatient client terminated the assignment.

This case illustrates two very different issues.

The first is the failure of the supplying lawyer to properly identify the issues involved, relying to much on precedents with insufficient real analysis of the issues around which the agreement was to be wrapped. The second was the unwillingness of the client to take the time to supply proper information.

Impatient clients are a very real professional problem for lawyers. Clients feel that lawyers who try to insist on proper information are acting to inflate their bills. This can be hard to manage and requires people management skills, something that most professionals are not well trained in.

The problem of bill inflation and of cutting corners to get things done all links to charging patterns. The critical variables of time credited to a client, work in progress, the transmission of work in progress to client bills and the degree of time write-offs in the process are individually measured. This can make it hard to commit time that professionals believe is warranted when that time might have to be written off. 

in the case I was talking about, the final result may be okay so long as nobody else challenges the IP and the parties themselves do not fall out. In either case, the dance of litigation may begin.

Litigation is a chancy business because it favours the big, is often uncertain in legal terms and becomes a gladiatorial content that feeds egos. To a substantial degree, litigation is as much about non-legal tactics and strategy as it is about the law itself.

Effective litigation requires an understanding of client objectives and options especially when representing smaller clients, for these clients are at greater risk. Good lawyers have to make judgements that have nothing to do with law although they may take legal expression, everything to do with negotiating or forcing an acceptable outcome. Many lawyers just get locked into the gladiatorial contest or lack the skills to understand their client's real commercial position. Other lawyers and barristers become too locked into specific legal issues when the case itself actually has little to do with law as such.    

Discussion

This post is not an attack on the legal profession. I actually have  a very high opinion of lawyers as a whole. Rather, I have been setting a context focused on the practice of law.    

Both the teaching and practice of law are changing. Once the majority of those studying law whether as articled clerks or at university planned to go into private practice and were taught by those in practice. Today, the majority do not intend to go into private practice, nor are they taught by those in practice. This changes things.

If we look just at those going into practice, the way that they are taught does introduce perceptual bias. They are trained to think of the law as the law, not a means to an end. This is not new, but is deeply embedded.

Obviously, clients expect lawyers to have a knowledge of law, to be lawyers. That is a necessary precondition of practice, but it is not a sufficient condition. Lawyers are failing clients because they cannot stand outside the law and recognise and analyse other elements.

The solution? I do not have one. I can only indicate things that I consider to be important.

One thing is to focus on the discipline of professional practice, not just legal practice. Doctors do face similar problems to lawyers. Lawyers can learn from the concept of the diagnostic.

A second thing is to force lawyers to recognise the non-legal aspects of the work they do, forcing them to think outside the box while acquiring new skills.

This may sound abstract, so let me make it concrete.

I have been involved in the development of training on contracts and contract drafting. These are pretty important to the practice of law. We use case studies that require participants to actually analyse the business problems facing their clients and to relate suggested legal solutions directly to those business problems.

A small thing, but quite effective in forcing paradigm shifts.

Postscript

I woke up this morning still thinking about this post. Sad, I know!

All professions teach ways of thinking. One of the problems in multidisciplinary work, the reason why true multidisciplinary working is so difficult, lies not just in variations in fields of knowledge but also in patterns of thought. For that reason, some of the professional writing I have done has been concerned with ways of encouraging true multidisciplinary working.

In his original post that started this discussion, Ken Parish referred to the concepts of frames and framing. I first came across this concept a long time ago through the work of economist Kenneth Boulding on images, the term he used to describe the frameworks that we all use to simplify and interpret a complex world. In my writing on this blog I have used the term mental mudmaps.

At the time I first read Boulding I was back at UNE doing postgraduate research in history. I found the concept useful not just in thinking about the past, but also my own interpretation of the past. Take, as a simple example, the effects of speed of travel on the way we see the world around us. This really does affect the way we see the world.

A little later, I found Boulding's concept and the ideas I had developed based on the concept very helpful in developing new policy that required changes in thought. One problem today is that so much politics and policy actually plays to, reinforces, current frames.

Ken's focus in his post was on the possibility of introducing his students at CDU to problems of cognition and cognitive dissonance. He wrote:

I have in mind a couple of seminars that would explain the basics of each of these research approaches to cognitive biases or shortcomings.  We would also have students undertake versions of some of the surveys that led to these research findings.

However, what I’m also wondering is whether there are any well accepted practical techniques for diagnosing and correcting such cognitive biases in ourselves, other than the obvious but difficult one of attempting to adopt a skeptical stance in interrogating one’s own thought processes, especially when dealing with a question likely to arouse strong emotions?  And what useful indicators might exist to tell us when to engage in that sort of careful skeptical reflection about our own motives, assumptions and thought processes?  Heuristics and habit are unavoidable and useful behaviours.  None of us has the time or energy to reflect carefully and skeptically on every decision we make in our daily lives, and in most cases repeating behaviour that worked previously is both efficient and sensible.  Are there any reliable guides for picking when that might not be so?

I obviously come at the problem that Ken is trying to address in a different way. I think that you can make people aware of things like framing and the way it affects thought in a general sense. I think that you can use examples that will help people interpret the effects of frames or images, aiding them in understanding others.

To go from this to increased ability to critically monitor our own frames and preconceptions on an on-going basis is much more complex. I'm not sure that there is an answer to Ken's final question. I also wonder a little whether or not its the right question in the specific context Ken is talking about.

This is not a criticism. Ken was trying to articulate ideas. But its a big leap from increasing understanding in a general sense to individualising it. I suppose my feeling is that it would be best, and that was in a sense the purpose of this post, to link the concepts to the actual theory and practice of law.                

Wednesday, May 04, 2011

India, Australia and Asia

On Radio National's Saturday Extra program, Geraldine Doogue has been presenting a series of special features on India. I have only caught snippets, but the bits I have heard have been interesting. Those who are interested can find the whole series here

Another interview with Professor Michael Wesley, head of the Lowy Institute, looks at Australia and the rise of Asia.I quote one excerpt:

In a new book called There Goes the Neighbourhood he explores a conundrum that fascinates him, that though Australia is enmeshed more than ever in the world, we seem to be less interested in the region around us. He calls us 'insular internationalists', and he's consulted the realm of psychology to try to probe some fresh answers.

I have commented before on what I see as a decline in Australian popular interest in Asia from a peak in the 1960s, a rise in Australian insularity.

Part of this is due simply, I think, to growing familiarity. At a time when most Australians are used to seeing a very mixed society around them, it is hard to envisage the fascination that Asia exercised at a time when it seemed so different; the differences fascinated.

In Travel, tubing and social change in Australia I spoke a little about the travel habits of young Australians. The things that motivated my daughters' generation in visiting Asia are very different from my reactions at the same age. Then among the growing number of younger Australians with Asian backgrounds, there were very few in the 1960s, the various Asian countries are simply part of their background life in somewhat the same way that Scotland is to me. Interesting and important, but more part of the furniture.

Mind you, there is one difference. I never saw England or Scotland as a place to go to make money! The return of younger Asian Australians to India and China in particular to take advantage of the new opportunities opening is a marked feature of modern Australian life.

It's all very interesting, at least to me!

Tuesday, May 03, 2011

Regional, rural & the whole damned policy mess

Last night, the ABC's Q&A program was broadcast from Albury and has a specific focus on regional development and regional policy. Those who are interested can find the program details here; the transcript should be up this afternoon.

I tweeted two questions, both of which reflect my interests. They were not good questions for that audience and were not picked up, but I asked them quite deliberately.    

For tonight's Q&A panel. Why is so little attention paid to the history of regional policy? We constantly re-invent the wheel #qanda

Follow up question for Q&A panelists. Do you support new states such as self government for New England? #qanda

In this post, I want to look the issues raised by the program and the reasons I asked those questions. I do not want this to be an especially long post. I just want to make a few points.

Global Perspective

The problem of drift to the bigger cities and the continuing depopulation of certain areas is a global phenomenon. However, Australia has some relatively unique features.

The first is the early dominance of the capital cities. From the beginning, there was a large and growing gap between those cities and the hierarchy of towns outside them.

The second and linked phenomenon was urbanisation. At the start of the twentieth century, the proportion of the population living in urban centres was very high, the rural population low, by global standards. Then people began to leave for the capital cities. Official Australian publications over the first decades of the twentieth century such as the Australian Year Books worried about this trend, suggesting that the growing population dominance of the capital cities was unusual by international standards.

Most recently has been something of a rush to the coast more generally. A very high proportion of the Australian population now lives within 50k of the coastline. Inland areas have suffered population stagnation, even actual declines.

For the benefit of international readers who might think of inland areas as places remote on a US or China scale, Australia's climate means that much of the continent is very thinly populated. While more remote areas have lost population, much of the shift has come from areas not all that far from the seaboard by continental standards.

I make these points to set a context.

The Q&A Program

The Q&A program had an inland focus. Many of the questions and subsequent discussion focused on now common issues - differences in health, education and other services between country Australia and the cities; poor communications; the difficulties in attracting population.

The responses by the Panel took fairly familiar patterns.

Simon Crean as responsible Federal Minister argues that local areas needed to adopt a proactive approach in defining their needs so as to force Governments to respond. Independent member for New England Tony Windsor, a man who has begun to acquire a quite remarkable national following, argued that the 30% of the population living in the country must organise and use their balance of power.

I quite enjoyed the exchange here, for Tony neatly pinned another panel member, Sophie Mirabella, the Liberal Member for Indi (once a strong Country Party seat), on the Victorian side of the border.

Sophie is Shadow Minister for Innovation, Industry and Science. She was caught between her role as local member and her broader Party position, making it very hard for her to respond to some of Tony's arguments.

I was also interested to hear Tony's support for the WA National Party - they are not in coalition with the Liberal party - and his apparent intent to visit WA with Federal WA National MP Tony Crook to campaign for the WA Nationals.

The Panel argued for improved infrastructure (the National Broadband Network received a strong push with Sophie dissenting!), more education, better health services coming in to support local activism. Pretty much standard stuff.

Problems with Definitions

Throughout the discussion, people kept referring to regional and rural, then they would shift to country, or to inland Australia.

Now regional and rural is a term I really don't understand. Surely a rural area is also a regional area? You will find a little of the history of the term here. It is actually a pretty meaningless term, but it's also a sign of language fragmentation that absolutely bedevils the creation of any sensible regional policy.

I spoke a little about this in my Armidale paper on Social Change in New England 1950-2000. An excerpt follows. In reading it, bear in mind that integrated policy is almost impossible if there are no common terms.    

The decline in the use of the words New England was not the only semantic change affecting the North. Words are important because they affect and reflect changing perceptions. In 1950, the word country was commonly used to describe NSW outside Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong. While the use of this term divided Newcastle from the rest of New England, a divide that accurately reflected cultural and political differences, country was at least a broad, commonly understood, geographic term.

By the 1970s, country was losing favour, in part because of the growth of urban centres whose residents did not identify with the term. In its place came the word regional. This fragmented in turn. By 2000, there was something of a crazy patchwork quilt of words – country, regional, rural, remote, coastal – that overlapped and were used in different combinations. This growing confusion in terms reflected in part the increasing use of ARIA.

ARIA, the Accessibility/Remoteness Index of Australia, was developed by the Commonwealth Department of Health and Aged Care and the National Key Centre for Social Applications of GIS. ARIA measures remoteness based on the physical road distance between a settlement and four classes of service centre. In 1999 a further revision of ARIA called ARIA+ was developed that incorporated more information on the location of service centres.

While ARIA was a simple geographic descriptor intended to measure remoteness from services, its widespread use by the Commonwealth Government for statistical purposes and to guide service delivery affected the use of words. In 1950, the Australian states still retained a substantial degree of independence. By 2000, the Australian Government was involved in every aspect of policy once the preserve of the states. To the officials in Canberra seeking mechanisms to allow for national uniformity in service delivery while also taking geography into account, the ARIA classifications seemed a useful device; very remote, remote, outer regional, inner regional and major city were now firmly added to the semantic mix.

The difficulty from a New England perspective lay in the way that these various terms cut across the area’s natural geography, further fragmenting the sense of New England or Northern identity, while creating problems for integrated service delivery based on geography. We can see this if we look at New England’s Kamilaroi or Gamilaraay Aboriginal language group who occupied the Western Slopes and Plains. Their traditional territory was variously classified from very remote to inner regional, a classification that affected the services provided. People with a common culture sharing common problems received different benefits depending on just where they lived.

Problems with history

If problems with terminology don't create enough problems, we have a problem with history. More precisely, we have a problem with loss of memory of history.

If you look back at my brief remarks under Global Perspective, you can see why decentralisation and regional development has been such an enduring Australian issue.

In the first period after Federation, new states (the creation of new self-governing bodies from existing states) were seen as a natural answer because they would give more local power to address local problems. I remain a new state supporter on grounds of practicality and sentimentality, although they are not a panacea.

Opposition to new sovereign states led to the idea of regional councils. Part of the push here came from the Labor Party which had adopted a unification policy with the National Government delegating powers to regional governments. Part, too, came from state governments looking to head off new state agitation.

The 1924 NSW Cohen Royal Commission into new states concluded that the country had been disadvantaged in the past, but that was no longer true. Remaining country grievances and development needs were best met by the creation of regional councils within NSW.

By the late 1940s, it was clear that neither regional councils nor existing general decentralisation policies were likely to have any real impact. On one side this led to a resurgence of new state agitation, on the other to the development of the idea of selective decentralisation, concentration of resources to build specific regional centres.

New state agitation largely collapsed after the narrow defeat of the 1967 New England New State Plebiscite, while the idea of selective decentralisation was apparently discredited by the failures of the Whitlam Government. In their place came a patchwork and varying quilt of policies whose existence and longevity depended on the political circumstances of the time.

Those policies did not work, nor could they work because they suffered from fundamental weaknesses. They:

  • ignored history and experience
  • were often ideologically rather than practically based.
  • rarely survived for long enough too have any meaningful impact
  • lacked any meaningful integration
  • could not overcome existing power structures.

Conclusion

I have no faith that anything has changed.

In asking the question about history, I knew that neither the Q&A team nor indeed the panel knew enough to respond to the question. I may have been able to phrase it better, to make it more relevant, if I had had time. I did not.

I am not necessarily a great supporter of Spanish philosopher, essayist, poet, and novelist George Santayana's comment that "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it". In this case, I think that it's relevant.    

Monday, May 02, 2011

Cognitive bias & Australia's position in the world

In yesterday's post Blog performance & a blogging meander I referred to problems associated with perceptual or cognitive bias in the practice of law. Legal Eagle kindly commented:

Can't wait for your cognitive bias and lawyers post, Jim. One of my theories is that lawyers get too tied up in the arguments and the joy of the fight, and forget that they are there to do what is best for their clients... I saw it a few times when I used to work for a judge...

It will take me a little while to put that post together. I am sure that LE is right so far as court is concerned. But in many areas of law and especially commercial law, the core problem lies much earlier in the process, in the drafting of the original documents. Lawyers are trained in law and are there to provide legal advice and "solutions". I have put solutions in inverted commas for emphasis. This leads to the misapplication of law to what are in fact non-legal problems.

You see the same problem in public policy as well in the proliferation of legislation and regulation. However, I want to focus just on the processes involved in giving legal advice and then drafting legal documents.

Problems with Kiki dealt with a quite entertaining (entertaining for the audience) problem that arose for a Newcastle woman because her personalised number plates carried her nickname Kiki. The New South Wales Roads and Traffic Authority asked her to show cause why the plates should not be withdrawn because Kiki apparently means vagina in Tagalaog. Ramana has an old friend called Kiki and responded with  Language And Bureaucracy. Now in a comment on the post, cousin Jamie reports that they have a friend called Kiki whose mother named her after an 80s English television character called Kiki the Frog!

My post Tinkler rides to Newcastle's rescue - again began with the line "I have to say that it's helpful to have a local billionaire."

To those that have shall be given. That phrase encapsulates one of my concerns about the process of economic change.

I have written a fair bit on this blog about the University of New England because it's my university and deeply entwined with my family.

When UNE began, there were local businesses and families that had money and backed the place. It would not exist otherwise. Putting it in today dollar terms, you had a million here, four million there, a couple of hundred thousand top up to fill a gap. The problem for UNE is that the economic changes in the second half of the twentieth century effectively destroyed much of the local donor base. This puts UNE at a growing disadvantage as compared to, say, Sydney University.

Obviously I am concerned with UNE because it is my university, but it actually bears upon something that I have been writing about in regard to Australia's position in the world, the hollowing of the Australian economy.

Just as those in New England did not properly envisage the impact of changes over which they had no effective influence, so with Australia today. Market forces in a globalised economy may redistribute economic activity so as the maximise global gains, but one should make no assumptions about Australia's place in the process.

Australia today could well be like UNE in the past, about to have its economic underpinnings ripped out. This won't happen overnight. It took three decades to destroy the economic base from which UNE drew part of its strength. But it can happen.

I am now straying into territory that I have previously marked out for a new series of posts. Still, consider this.

In the 1980s, the NSW and Australian Governments began to talk about the role of Sydney as a global financial centre. The term global Sydney dates from this time. All sorts of reasons were advanced as to why this might happen: good telecoms, stable government, closeness to Asia.

Has it happened? To my mind, no. It is now hard to see Sydney as anything but a subsidiary centre.

This post is long enough. Part of the problem is actually cognitive bias created by Sydney's place as a big fish in a very small pond. That happened to UNE as well. But that's another story.  

Sunday, May 01, 2011

Blog performance & a blogging meander

Just a meander this morning, starting with the monthly stats. 

Stats April 11 2 The attached graphic shows visits (yellow) plus page views (yellow plus red) to this blog over the thirteen months to end March.

The previous upward trend has peaked, although the increase April on April is quite good. I suspect that I am getting a bit too boring for my regular visitors!

About 20% of my traffic - the number bounces around - comes from repeat visits.

The top ten page views in April were:

The top two are constantly in the top two places. The next eight vary from month to month.

Having disposed of the monthly statistical entrails watching, a few comments on posts of interest on other blogs.

On Club Troppo, Nicholas Gruen's “It is good sense to appoint individual people to jobs on their merit. It is the opposite when those who are judged to have merit of a particular kind harden into a new social class without room in it for others” puts an argument on for monarchy based on the very apparent illogicality of the concept.

Staying with Club Troppo, Ken Parish's Rooting out Cognitive Bias 101seeks advice - a wisdom of crowds thing - on some seminars in jurisprudence seeking to correct perceptual bias. This led skepticlawyer to write a companion piece, Crowdsourcing bleg – getting lawyers to think creatively.

Now this must seem pretty dry stuff, and in some ways it is. However, bear with me for a moment.

One of the issues that I have been trying to think through is the reason why lawyers so often fail to address the real needs of their clients. This is directly related to cognitive bias installed during legal training, as well as the dynamics of the profession.

I decided to write a companion post, but found it almost impossible. Both Ken and SL address the issue from a macro level whereas my concern is very micro, professional failure in the handling of individual matters. I do want to write something on this, for I actually spend a lot of time on this blog trying to address cognitive bias, the way in which our mental frameworks affect our perceptions and judgements. However, it will have to wait.

In Kartini's Day and Indonesian women, Tikno looked at the role of women in Indonesia. Tikno notes that Kartini's Day is taken from the name Raden Ajeng Kartini, a heroine for the emancipation of Indonesian women during Dutch colonial. Not unexpectedly, I had never heard of Raden Kartini, so I found it interesting.

By coincidence, at the time I was trying to find out about a little known episode in Australian and New England history that linked Australia, the Netherlands and the Indonesian struggle for independence. This led me to write Victory Camp & the Casino Boys as a preliminary introduction. Have a look. I bet that you have not heard of it either!

1906 Raincoat This photo shows a 2006 Canadian women's raincoat. The hat could have come from the recent royal wedding! The photo is from Barbara Martin's My Town Monday - Going In Style.

Climate forms fashion. Looking at Barbara's reproductions, I can see visual similarities with women's clothing in Australia at the same time, but Canada's climate requires different physical solutions.

Staying with Canada, Christopher Moore's History News has been exploring past elections. In case you don't know it, the current Canadian federal election campaign is coming to an end.

I had intended to write something on it, but other events have intervened.

Why bother? Well, Canada is part of the Commonwealth and broadly has the same constitutional tradition as Australia and many other Commonwealth countries. So what happens in Canada actually has an influence elsewhere. More importantly, Canada has regional divides based on history, geography and ethnicity that make those in Australia look like a pussy cat.

The very survival of Canada as a political entity is remarkable. It's not all that long ago that the betting was that Canada could not survive, yet somehow it has muddled through. I also find considerable enjoyment in the confusion that Canada creates in the US. Like many Australians with New Zealand, many US people including the commentariat look down on Canada. The sneers are quite remarkable!

But if we look at the immediate past, the US has given us the Tea Party, Canada a resurgent NDP. Actually, history means that Australians can understand Canada in a way that many US people cannot. Blame the Empire!

Turning to India, Ramana's Musings continues to entertain me. I know that I mention Ramana a lot, but he really is worth reading for his Indian insights. I don't read him every day, but I do read all his posts on at least a weekly basis.

Finally, finishing with a plug for my Armidale Express columns.

The last column brought on line (the Express sadly does not put the columns on-line because, or so Christian Knight as editor argues, they do not want to reduce the attraction of the columns for those buying the paper) was Belshaw's World - coming up thistles in government wasteland.

   Writing for the paper is a different discipline to blog posting. Obviously the standard of the column varies, but I actually think that there is some good stuff there.  You can see all the columns by clicking here for 2009, here for 2010, here for 2011.