Saturday, March 24, 2007

NSW Elections 2007 - a note

Well, like Neil, I have done my civic duty and voted.

My views on the outcome continue to swing. Over on Poll Bludger there was a comment that the independent/minor (non Green) vote in regional NSW was showing up over 20 per cent in the polls. I had not seen this before. This is huge and will have significant affects on the outcome.

Talking further to my daughters today, I find that most of their group - these are Sydney eastern suburbs girls - are voting Labor or Green. Further, most are voting above the line because they do not understand the preference system.

All this does not bode well for my forecast of a collapse in the core Labor vote. I keep on underestimating the Howard factor, the way in which the Federal Government has alienated some of the young on matters like Hicks. This is what has swung my own eldest. Once swung, they cannot bring themselves to vote Liberal.

On Poll Bludger, an enormously popular blog, the following message is running:

I am closing for business temporarily to conserve my dangerously low bandwidth allocation. Service will resume at 5.30pm EST, when my election coverage will begin with results of the Sky News exit poll.

Not surprised.

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