Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Un and underemployment in Australia. How do we fix the problem?

A week back, the Australian Bureau of Statistics released its latest labour force data for the month of September 2016. I was quite well covered at the time, but I thought that I should make a brief comment.

The attached graph shows the unemployment rate (those who are looking for work but can't find a job) and the underemployment rate (those with some part time work but who want to work more) over the last ten years.

Two points to note. While movements in the two curves generally mirror each other, you can see how the gap has widened over the least two years. I think that reflects in part the continued rise in part time work. The second  point is that the combined total of those out of work or who are underemployed is now well over 14% of the workforce.

The next graph shows the workforce as a percentage of the total population. This is not the same as the participation rate which is the proportion of the working age population actually in the workforce. Consequently, it is affected by the number of children and the number of those who have retired.

So what we appear to have is a steady increase in the combined un/under employment rate at the same time that the work force is declining as a percentage of  the overall population.

Just at the moment, the country needs to maintain workers as a proportion of population  and increase the utilisation of those who want to work. I don't think that we are doing an especially good job of either.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Jim's analysis, of course, ignores the two elephants in the room, which is one more than he usually points to: the growing numbers of old people, and the capacity for the fertile among us to procreate.

So the question might be rephrased as - why are we as a nation so unwilling to discuss both euthanasia and forced sterilisation?

Unsavoury - I accept - but Jim's concentration upon just one aspect of a far larger, administratively complex problem - the correction of the graph - will I suspect involve the efforts of not just one but many ministeries, and sacrifices made by us all :)

kvd

Jim Belshaw said...

Laughs. You know kvd, that does illustrate rather nicely if in an extreme the way statistics can guide us in wrong directions. Euthanasia and forced sterilisation would address the immediate statistical question by increasing the proportion of the now smaller population in the workfoce. We could also reduce the unemployment rate by commissioning Border Force to forcibly deport the unemployed.

Anonymous said...

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
That is actually my cat's comment. I think it means that he is fully 'employed' as a preventer of his Mummy doing anything significant or important on the computer.

Jim Belshaw said...

That definitely sounds like a cat!

Anonymous said...

Completely and totally off-topic Jim, but this from the ABC website re Senator Day:

The ABC understands legal advice given to the Government suggests Mr Day's electorate office arrangements may have breached the section.

Though the Commonwealth paid no rent for his office space, it does have a lease agreement in place with the owners of the building.

Mr Day used to own the building but sold it to associates after he was elected.

He backed the loan his associates used to pay for the sale, creating the possible constitutional breach.


Wot I wanna know is if this might affect the far more direct common activity of receiving daily LAHA while living in a Canberra house owned by your wife/husband/trust?

kvd

Anonymous said...

Never mind. Seems as if some of the commentary have stopped wetting themselves on the makeup of the Senate, and are starting to muse on this.

kvd

Jim Belshaw said...

They are indeed, kvd. I have only read some of the commentary at this point.