Reflections on the 2015 Australian Mid Year Economic and Financial Outlook (MYEFO)

Yesterday, the Australian Government released its Mid Year Economic and Financial Outlook or MYEFO. As you might expect, it's been well covered in the Australian media (here, here, here and here from an academic perspective).   Much of the coverage has focused on the budget aggregates such as size of the deficit, the difficulties involved in getting back into surplus, as well as the specific expenditure changes built into the latest budget estimates. Expect to hear more on both! In this brief report I want to comment on a few things I noticed that have been perhaps less well covered.

The first thing is an apparent if probably minor difference in views between the Reserve Bank and Treasury.

In its Statement on Monetary Policy released on 9 November, the Reserve Bank said:

 Over the course of this year, the recoveries in the United States and euro area economies have continued but growth has slowed in the Asian region. The slowdown in the Asian region has been associated with lower growth of global trade volumes and industrial production and has contributed to a decline in the prices of Australia's resource exports. Core inflation has generally been steady in both the advanced and emerging economies, but at rates below central banks' targets. Globally, monetary policy remains very accommodative and finance remains readily available to creditworthy borrowers.

The Bank repeated this view on 1 December in announcing the decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2 per cent. 

The global economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with some softening in conditions in the Asian region, continuing US growth and a recovery in Europe. Key commodity prices are much lower than a year ago, reflecting increased supply, including from Australia, as well as weaker demand. Australia's terms of trade are falling.

The apparent difference between the Reserve Bank and Treasury lies the assessment of Asian growth, with the Bank pointing to the slowdown in the Asian region, while Treasury repeats the mantra about our trading partners growing at faster than the world average. The Bank also seems to have a more positive view on euro-zone growth than Treasury. 

I mention this one because I was actually slightly surprised at the Bank's November assessment. I hadn't realised the extent of the Asian slowdown.I was also interested in the weight placed on euro-zone growth.

The second thing I wanted to comment on was Treasury's work force analysis. The rate of Australia's population increase, and especially increases in the overall work force, depends very heavily on the level of immigration. That is well down. There have also been reductions in hours worked that Treasury now considers represents a structural shift. In combination, these changes mean that the economy has less spare capacity than previously estimated, leading Treasury to down grade its estimates of possible growth. There are all sorts of issues in this that I would like to come back  to later.

Capital investment is the third thing I wanted to mention. The numbers suggest that the unwinding of mining investment following the end of the mining boom has largely run its course. The building boom underway in certain places that has provided cushioning still has a a way to run because of the level of work in progress, but that too will end. Other capital investment has been slower to pick up than  expected because the re-balancing underway in the economy and particularly growth in services involves a shift towards less capital intensive activities as conventionally measured. I say as conventionally measured because this goes back to an earlier discussion on this blog about the definition of capital investment in services.  For the moment, the combined effect is soft capital investment for the immediate future.

Another interesting thing is the continued stagnation in both nominal and real incomes. At one level, you would expect this. The terms of trade effects that allowed rapid growth in real incomes have gone into reverse. Arithmetically, that depresses real incomes. Growth in nominal incomes has been suppressed by demand factors as well as by structural shifts. My impression is that the jobs that have been created are generally in lower paid areas, the jobs lost in higher paid occupations. The country has maintained employment better than expected, that's good, but there really has been an income recession.

The final thing that I wanted to note at this point are two explicit parameters built into the budget framework. The first is the continued emphasis on the requirement for any new expenditure to be offset by savings elsewhere.  This second is the stated requirement that any gains that come from parameter shifts, ie outcomes better than assumptions, should go to deficit reduction. In combination, the two place a considerable straight jacket on the Government's ability to act.  

Monday Forum - what do you think of the Paris climate deal?

At the end of November we had quite a long discussion (Saturday Morning Musings - coal, climate change and conceptual confusions) on the policy and other issues connected with responses to climate change. Since then, the agreement reached in Paris has been released  The Australian site the Conversation has a couple of useful summary pieces:

• Five things you need to know about the Paris climate deal
• The Paris climate agreement: the real work starts now
• Climate justice and an end to fossil fuels: the Paris agreement won’t satisfy activists
• How will carbon markets help the Paris climate agreement

In After Paris — what now?, Don Aitkin takes a more jaundiced view, Catallaxy Files a still more jaundiced view: Of more substance is this second Catallaxy post: Cross-post: Kesten Green – Is climate forecasting immune from Occam’s razor?

I have to agree with Don that the language is opaque. However, this seems to be a feature of all these types of international agreements..

Given that we now that we have the agreement, I thought it might be worth re-visiting the earlier discussion. What do you think of the outcome?

From my perspective, I thought that it was actually a useful next step. It won't satisfy purists on either side, one wanting greater action, the other no action at all. However, it does create a structure that could evolve.depending on the way the problem unfolds. It also, as Katherine Lake points out, contains provisions that could facilitate the emergence of a carbon market.

Postscript

University of New England academics provide their own policy take, while kvd pointed .to this interesting piece in the UK Telegraph. 

That little old train: the week in review

It's been a messy old week. At times, I felt like the little old train that thought that it could faced by an apparently impossible hill. Except that the hill seemed just too great.

The week began with loss of internet connection. This reminded me (again!) just how dependent we have all become on the damn technology. The internet encourages us (among other things)  to live in a just in time world because its so bloody convenient. No need to carry cash. You can transfer some and then get it from an ATM. Pay that account at the last moment? That's fine. Then things go wrong!

My local St George Bank, a ten minute walk away, has just closed because of reduced demand. The nearest branch now is at Maroubra, a half hour walk. Walk? Who walks? Well, earlier in the year I had a minor accident in a parking lot. Silly thing really. My accelerator had been sticking. I was backing out of the bay. To overcome the sticking accelerator I pushed down hard. The car went backwards at pace, in so doing smashing the front against a pillar, damaging the tire. I was bloody lucky really. If another car had been coming or a shopper with a trolley, I could have done some serious damage!

Anyway, the accident damaged the suspension. I didn't realise this immediately. The car was still driveable once the tire was replaced. However, I can't re-register until the the damage is fixed and I need to accumulate some funds first. Half inclined to stay car-less in the short term. All this walking is doing wonders for my fitness. At the same time, it means that I can't just pop out to do things.

One useful side-effect of the whole affair is that I finally got round to joining the library in Maroubra. I used to take eldest there sometimes when she was at school and knew that it was quite a good library. Importantly, it has computers with free access for members, meaning that I could get some things done if not as conveniently as I might from the home office.

It was quite interesting watching the library at work. It's a remarkably busy place with many activities.

Now that my internet is back on, the immediate need to visit has vanished. However, I do plan to check out properly the library services  and especially the on-line data bases since many of these require subscriptions.

If loss of internet access marked the start of the week, the week was book-ended by the closure of my long-standing storage shed. I had been meaning to do this for some time, in part to save money, more because I actually wanted to sort out the books, papers and household kit stored there.

While the intent was there, the shear physical labour involved was not attractive. A few years back, I did do a clean out and then shifted and stacked the remaining boxes to the ceiling in a smaller shed. I did not enjoy the experience, putting my back out in the process! However, this time it had to be done.

Actually, the experience was not as bad as I had expected. Storage King Alexandria kindly lent me their small van, I could not have done it without that, while youngest and two of her friends came to help. Between us, we filled the van three times, unloading at the house.

My own small storage area at the back took over half the load, with the rest going into the spare bedroom, kitchen and lounge. Now I am sitting here with a bemused expression working out what to sort first. It's actually a bit like an archaeological expedition.

The box I started unpacking last night was full of crockery all wrapped in newspapers dating to 1994. Even though the box itself was newer, I must have repacked it when I shifted storage sheds, the crockery itself comes from Marsh Street and was packed when we moved out in 1994. It's a useful find given the current state of my day to day crockery. As an aside, I did manage to discipline myself not to read the crumpled newspapers!

The boxes include three sets of family papers that really should go to the archives, as well as the remnants of my book collection. Now that they are at Astrolabe, I can at least sort them properly.

While I have been otherwise preoccupied, the rest of the world has continued without me. Mr Turnbull has released his innovation statement, the somewhat strangely entitled National Innovation and Science Agenda Report. As it happened, the boxes include some of my personal papers from equivalent exercises in the 1980s. It's not clear to me that the world has changed much. I have a part completed post here.

More importantly, the agreement reached at Paris has been released. I have read it, but these international agreements are not reader friendly. More effort is required to work out what it all means.

And so the week ends. Next week back to normal activities.

Monday Forum - in my absence

I again am having internet problems. Hope to resume some posting Wednesday. In the meantime, I leave it in your hands to maintain the conversation on whatever topics you choose!

That Australian life - woes engulf Australian soccer as fans revolt

Just when things seem so good seems to be the time when the wheels come off.

On Tuesday 17 November 2015, ABC TV ran a documentary, Played: Inside Australia’s Failed World Cup Bid, This piece in The Conversation by David Rowe, The player played: Frank Lowy and Australia’s failed World Cup bid, provides some background. The photo shows Football Federation Australia's Frank Lowy with FIFA's Sepp Blatter in happier days.

I don't agree with all the tone of David Rowe's analysis, but it is clear that Australia and Frank Lowy were taken for a ride.This is not a criticism of My Lowy, his contribution to Australian soccer has been remarkable. Rather, Australia entered a murky pool that we did not properly understand. The documentary came following a long series of revelations about FIFA corruption, triggered in part by the bid Australia lost in such a humiliating fashion. .
.
Four days later, on November 21, Sydney's Daily Telegraph ran a piece,. Red card: The banned football fans from 10 A-League clubs, naming with the intent of shaming 198 people who had been banned from soccer games.As I indicated, I had severe reservations about the Telegraph's actions. Regular commenter 2t remarked what else can you expect from the Tele as the paper is colloquially known? Maybe, but the paper plus inflammatory comments from Sydney radio shock jock ignited a fire storm.

If you do not mind, I will read it out, 'Dear Mr,' and the name has been blacked out:

'Please be advised that Football Federation Australia (FFA) is not a government agency and, as such, the obligation to adhere to the rules of procedural fairness and natural justice does not apply to our organisation. For this reason, FFA will not consider any appeal.' Evidence to Senate Committee Inquiry

Based in Parramatta, the Western Sydney Wanderers have been one of the success stories of the national A-League competition, building a support base that transcends  Problems with the relations between police and fans at  Wanderers games have been building for some time.

On 3 November 2015, the Australian Senate's Nanny State inquiry heard evidence at Parramatta on the extent of the problem, relations between policing and fans and the nature of FFA responses. You will find the full transcript here. It's worth reading in full.

We (our crowd management security company) tendered to a lot of large football clubs in the UK predominantly, including the likes of Manchester City and Leeds United, who back in the dark days were regarded as one of the worst clubs around. I have had the benefit of seeing, firsthand, how an approach of engagement as opposed to authoritarianism, as I perceive it, influences a crowd and a crowd's behaviour. Evidence to the Senate Committee Inquiry

The evidence shows a growing disconnect between the police on one side, the fans and club and indeed civic officials in the middle, and the FFA on the other. It seems clear that the police were adopting an increasingly interventionist approach including the presence of black garbed riot squad police. It seems clear that that the FFA were doing likewise, including banning people without any right of appeal or indeed, in some cases, without the people even being aware of the ban. It seems clear that there was a breakdown in communications and previous cooperative approaches between police, fans and civic officials with with both police and indeed the FFA adopting an activist (to use a phrase from the Inquiry) a "my way or the highway" approach.

Labelled "grubs" by police, likened to the terrorists who committed the horrors in Paris a fortnight ago by radio host Alan Jones and given little support by the governing body in the face of heavy-armed handling by police, the fans simply had enough. SMH report

In naming people as it did, the Telegraph breached privacy rules and also natural justice because those named had not apparently been before any tribunal nor had any appeal rights. They had just been banned. In response, the now furious Western Sydney fans began organising protests and boycotts of games with support coming from other clubs.

The first response of FFA CEO David Gallop was to temporise, to maintain a hard line while saying that fans could submit evidence to overturn their ban . It seems clear, I think, that he was thinking as CEO of the broader place and prestige of soccer with external stakeholders. In so doing, he forgot that the base of the game is the fan. Within hours, the fury engulfed the A-League.

At the weekend, the Sydney Morning Herald's Dominic Bossi reported that just half an hour into the match against Central Coast, the entire Wanderers active supporter group marched out of the ground leaving the scenic Central Coast Stadium at Gosford eerily silent. Even the Mariners' brass band stopped playing as they joined their rivals with a silent protest against the FFA, unveiling a banner criticising their lack of support for their faithful customers. Now Sydney FC supporters propose joining the boycott.

In his initial remarks, Mr Gallop said that appeal processes need to be "fine tuned". This plus the suggestion that fans could submit evidence appears in total conflict with the evidence provided to the Senate Inquiry stating that there was no right of appeal. It also conflicts with Dominic Bossi report (link above) and here I quote:

After years of criticism and pleas from supporters to provide transparency and the right to challenge bans, Head of the A-League Damien De Bohun declared the FFA is developing a system for innocent fans to have their spectator bans overturned. 

This strikes me as a little more than fine tuning!

Writing in today's Sydney Morning Herald, Perth Glory goalkeeper Ante Covic argues that A-League fans need to be treated as critical stakeholders who deserve respect. That's true. It would be sad if the outcome of all this was the destruction of the enthusiasm and character that Frank Lowy worked so hard to create.

Postscript

The dispute rolls on, centered especially on the question of natural justice. This is the motion to be moved in the Senate on the matter:

Postscript 2, 5 December 

The trouble drags on. The ABC has now covered the case of Julian Cumbo who received a five year ban for an apparent incident in a pub that took place when he was sixteen. The ABC story includes the actual ban notice. The ban notice was apparently delivered by a security firm hired by the FFA. It states (among other things) that "your personal details ... are being maintained in accordance with the Football Federation Australia Privacy Policy and relevant Statutes".

As best I can work out from the story:

• An incident of some type took place in a pub in Melbourne. The FFA ban notice says that Mr Cumbo participated in a violent brawl and that hew was subsequently issued with a police caution "due to your status as a minor." The wording here is ambiguous. Was Mr Cumbo issued with with the caution because he was a minor, for example because he was on licensed premises, or was it limited to a caution because he was a minor?
• The ban was imposed as part of the FFA's zero tolerance policy. It purports to ban Mr Cumbo from both a variety of matches and a variety of venues 
• There was no consultation prior to the ban, nor did the ban provide for any form of review or appeal provisions. It was just imposed.

There appear to be a number elements in all this:

• The nature and extent of the FFA's zero tolerance policy. The issue took place in a pub, not on the grounds. Where does the FFA draw a line between ground incidents and those that might happen elsewhere?
• The head of power the FFA used in adopting the policy
• The process the FFA followed in imposing the ban. This is unclear
• The absence of any review or appeal provisions
• The failure of the FFA to maintain confidentiality and privacy. This would appear to be a breach of 

I am not a lawyer. However, I have been involved in quasi-legal proceedings in. for example, appeals against decisions of a specialist medical college or the operations of that college's ethics committee. Like the FFA, that college's operations had to meet tests of fairness and be consistent with the law. This imposed costs on the college and sometimes created very real issues where the results were seen by the college or some of its members as inappropriate. However, this was the price that had to be paid for a fair and transparent process.

While I am aware of the problems that can arise with fan behaviour, I don't understand the mindset that seems to have developed within the FFA that has led to a quasi-legal approach that not only breaches basic principles of equity, transparency and fairness, but seems to extend beyond the FFA's role, mission and powers.

Postscript 1 December 2015

Well, the boycott is over. The FFA accepted the complaints and agreed that those affected should have
access to all evidence on which the FFA intends to rely on in any ban process plus access to an appeals process independent of the FFA.  Following this, fan groups agreed to call the boycotts off.

The new process takes into account both due process and natural justice. I still don't understand why the FFA had to be dragged kicking and screaming to this point. 

Monday Forum - the Swiss and their horses, Aboriginal occupation, football hooliganism and Miss Bossy Boots

Today's Monday Forum is simply a round-up of items that may or may not trigger discussion.

"This is the acceptable way to ride a horse." Caption

This has to be one of the most bizarre stories that I have ever read, even for News Corporation:  The amount of people having sex with horses is on the rise in Switzerland.Can you match it?

In a more sensible piece in the Australian (Secrets unearthed at Boodie Cave: humankind just got a little older), Victotia Laurie reports on the results of a dig at Boodie Cave on WA's Barrow Island where dating suggests Aboriginal occupation from 50-53,000 years ago.

The heading is quite misleading. Humankind didn't get that little bit older as a consequence of this dig. The explosion of recent evidence shows that humanid occupation of this planet is far older and more complex than any of us realised even 40 years ago.One side effect has been to reduce the relative time space occupied by Australia's Aboriginal peoples.However, I think it remains true (at least for the present) that the Aborigines remain the oldest continuous occupants of a geographic space.

From my viewpoint, the results are interesting because they fit with the hypothesis that Aboriginal occupation spread in two waves, one down the WA coast, the second across Northern Australia and then south. More broadly, and this is where some of my readers may be able to help, with all the discoveries I am struggling to come to grips with the evolving pattern of human occupation of the planet as a whole. Can someone provide an updated summary?

This graphic came via a female friend some time ago. I laughed. At the risk of creating a fire storm, it does seem to me to capture rather well a number of stereotypes Women may laugh, men will smile in private.

 Staying with News Corporation for a moment, this piece from Sydney's Daily Telegraph, Red card: The banned football fans from 10 A-League clubs,
 actually horrified me. This Financial Review piece provides a little more background.

I thought that the Telegraph was very unfair and indeed from fragmentary media reports the piece appears to have had adverse effects on those whose names have appeared. There are at least two difficulties. One is the problem of double jeopardy, being convicted twice. The second and more important one is that the paper had no way of checking nor apparently did it try to check the facts relating to the 198 names revealed.

Am I wrong in being horrified?

Edward S Curtis' photographs of the native North Americans

Edward S Curtis was a notable photographer of the native North Americans. This is a photograph of Kwakiutl canoes from British Columbia.

Mashable has put together a collection of his photos. Have a browse. They are quite spectacular.

Looking at the history of Curtis's life in Wikipedia (link above), he seems to have been a bit of a sad case. That may be wrong, of course. Certainly he doesn't seem to have been very business like in managing his affairs.

Still, with the financial support of J P Morgan, he left an unparalleled record of North American native Indian groups whose value survives to this day.

Saturday Morning Musings - coal, climate change and conceptual confusions

There is something strangely unbalanced now about some of the discussion on climate change and, within that, the discussion on the future of coal. The sculpture is Louis Pratt's King Coal. The artist's description of his work concludes: "My work depicts an arrogant character unwilling to change and unaware of his impending doom."

When I read today's speech by Opposition Leader Shorten to the Lowy Institute, my first reaction was "emotional pap." By the end of the speech, and cutting out all the assertions and opinions, I actually had no idea just what Labor was proposing. Fortunately, the ALP web site has more information.   This defines the approach in this way:

Our approach to post-2020 pollution reduction targets has followed a clear and logical sequence of decision making:

• Labor accepts the science that limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius is necessary to avert dangerous climate change.
• Our commitment to limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius requires Australia to be a net zero emissions economy by the middle of the century.
• To achieve this 2050 target, Labor will consult on the Climate Change Authority’s 2030 baseline target of a 45 per cent reduction in carbon pollution on 2005 levels.

The proposed consultation process is intended to define the best path to the achievement of these objectives.

In April 2010 I attempted to summarise my own position on climate change in Belshaw's position on climate change. The post included a listing of the 26 posts I had written connected with the issue to that point. Writing in my often cautious way, I concluded:

1. On the balance I accept the majority scientific position that human induced climate change is a problem that need to be dealt with now. To wait until the science is proved right is a high risk strategy.
2. To the degree that there are identifiable changes such as changes in sea levels, then we need to consider our responses to them. This holds regardless of the causes of those changes: we need to respond to the what, rather than the why. I say this because my study of history and pre-history shows that, regardless of current current climate change arguments, there have been considerable natural variations that have actually occurred quite quickly. Nature is not static. 
3. I have been concerned for some time that group think in the scientific community and beyond has, to some extent, crowded out alternative views and that this has dangers. Scientific group think tends to be self-correcting over time because of the nature of scientific method. However, broader group think is less subject to correction.
4. Linked to three, I have been concerned at the way climate change arguments have become linked to so many disconnected issues. These arguments take the form if a (climate change) then b (add in whatever you like), when a and b are in fact disconnected or at best loosely connected. The tendency to link specific current events like the recent drought in southern Australia to climate change does not help. All this actually acts to discredit the core case.
5. Again linked to three, I have been concerned at what I see as the failure in discussion to adequately explore alternative policy responses to climate change. It may be that a market based response such as an emissions trading scheme is the best response (I suspect that either an ETS or carbon tax will be necessary), but I would feel much more comfortable if there had been more public discussion of alternatives. Among other things, this would give us a much better feel for practical implications of an ETS and for supporting measures that may be needed, as well as reducing the risk of simply dumb policy responses.

Quite a bit has happened since, including Mr Abbott! I would summarise those changes in this way:

1. Despite the attempts by Don Aitkin to correct what he sees as the more egregious errors, the evidence for human induced climate change has probably become stronger. I mention Don because I do read his posts as a way of checking my own perspective against an intelligent skeptic's position.
2. Regardless of 1, the global acceptance of human induced climate change creates a policy climate to which Australia must respond. We need to respond in a way that reflects our own interests. That requires cool thought, not emotional manipulation.
3. The discussion I expected (hoped for) on intelligent alternatives has simply not happened. I actually got quite excited about some possibilities, but I don't think that there has been a new idea or indeed much advance on existing ideas since I wrote. All we have is a conflict between existing stereotypes. 
4. By far the worst outcome from the Abbott period was the rejection of pricing mechanisms. There will be some form of carbon pricing, and we had a structure that would fit into that.
5. The economics in favour of renewables has shifted faster than expected. 

In all this, some new things have emerged or, at least, come into sharper focus. Two are of particular importance. I would summarise them in this way:

1. The magic pudding effect. For those who don't know this story, The Magic Pudding is an Australian children's book  The central character is a pudding that likes to be eaten and constantly replaces the lost slices. To my mind, this equates to much of the economic modelling on the effects of climate change action  We can have our pudding and eat it too. This is central to Mr Shorten's arguments. We can do things because they will have no real impacts on Australian wealth. I don't believe that.We need to recognise the costs and be thinking about them now.
2. Double counting. Under the evolving global system architecture now emerging, each country will be responsible for the emissions created on its territory  by activities carried out on its territory. Australian environmentalists do not accept that. In the case of coal, for example, they argue that Australia needs to consider the carbon costs of .our own activities in mining and burning coal within Australia plus the carbon costs incurred elsewhere. That's just dumb double counting.

I suppose in all this the most important evolution in my own thinking has been the importance I now place on markets and pricing effects. You may oppose a coal mine in a particular area on environmental grounds, but you cannot also oppose it on its global environmental effects so long as efficient pricing mechanisms are in place. Those are the customer's responsibility. If it is their interests to burn coal and pay the appropriate price, it is not our job to say that they are wrong.

The fact that Australian coal production may or may not be environmentally better than an alternative source is neither here nor there. It's the wrong argument. If the dirtier coal is cheaper after taking into account the cost of environmental offsets compared to alternatives, then that makes perfect environmental and economic sense.  

On the one hand, on the other: Labor's cigarette tax v Turnbull on national security

At a time when there are a few minor things going on around the world, Mr Shorten and the Labor Party's signature tune is a progressive increase in the excise on tobacco bringing the price of a packet of cigarettes to more than $40 by 2020. According to Opposition Leader Bill Shorten, the policy showed the "stark" difference between Labor and the Government. It does, but perhaps not in the way Mr Shorten intended.

Leaving aside the extremely sanctimonious, smug, we know best tone adopted by Opposition Health spokesperson Catherine King, there are two problems with the policy. The first is its extremely regressive nature. It is quite consciously targeting lower income groups. The second is the conflict between the stated objectives of raising cash on one side and of discouraging smoking on the other.

Now compare this signature policy with Mr Turnbull's measured remarks in response to the Paris bombings. The first seeks to force, to compel, the second to engage Australians in an adult conversation on a major issue that affects the very structure of Australian life now and in the future. I still have reservations about Mr Turnbull. I now have more reservations about Mr Shorten.

Monday Forum - on diets and dieting

This week's Monday forum is loosely linked to food and dieting.

I have continued my casual research into the history of food over the last two hundred years or so. My particular interest at the moment is the impact of the combination of improved transport with industrialisation of the food sector.

Victorian era food has had a very bad reputation. This is one example. This view has now been challenged by scientific research: Forget paleo, go mid-Victorian: it’s the healthiest diet you’ve never heard of.

Part of the argument in the paper is that the English diet changed during the second half of the nineteenth century as a consequence of new processed food stuffs, affecting health and life expectancy.

I was curious when the meaning of diet as in too diet or dieting or diet as noun for particular weight reduction came in. It seems that that meaning was there earlier, but its popularity really dates to the second half of the nineteenth century. The first really popular diet, the Banting diet, dates to 1863.

There has been some crazy diet ideas. I wonder what your favourites, pet hates or worst remembered experiences are? As always, feel free to go in whatever direction you want whether on or off topic.

Update

While there were not a lot of comments on this Forum, at least not to this point, I thought that I should bring a summary up into the main post.  kvd reminded us of the Diet of Worms.This has absolutely nothing to do with food, but like kvd this stuck in my mind from school because of the title: who would eat a diet of worms?

Then I thought, are there such a thing as edible worms? The answer appears to be yes. Mind you, when I was in Beijing I had a chance to eat fried insects. I fear I passed. Maybe the same for edible worms?

Now it appears that 2tanners is suffering from a slight plumpness problem and has therefore turned to 5:2 diet, aka intermittent fasting. Now I weighed myself a few days ago and I'm actually at the bottom of my normal weight range. I should certainly take some weight off round my tum, but I really need to add weight elsewhere.So intermittent fasting is not the answer for me. I do that anyway: it's called laziness!

2t also pointed out that views of the desired body weight/ body shape varied. This is something we have talked about in the context of women, I like curves, but 2t came up with a rather revolting example. Now growing up with all my prejudices, I thought that the US was very strange. Come to think of it, I still do!

2t also found a rather good cartoon on paleo diets. Do click through.  I think that you will laugh.

Meantime, all this discussion on food sent kvd south with his daughter. Now the ostensible reasons for the trip were (a) the aforesaid daughter, (b) horses, but nevertheless, food came in. Here I must quote:

Stumbled upon a small eatery and sampled the following: 

Daughter started with (typing from the menu which I swiped) “Scallop Caipirinha: Scallop Cevice, black beans, cachaca, lime, chorizo oil and coriander” whilst I made do with “Mosaic of ponzu tuna: cucumber, wasabi, garlic chips and avocado” 

After she’d eaten her Pirahnas, daughter decided to join me with each having an extremely rare “Beef eye fillet, mushroom velvet, tempura shallots, smoked daikon, horseradish & nori gnocchi”. 

Food great – and bugger your PC diets. .

Most of those ingredients were new to me. I thought that the first was Mexican, but 2t advises that Caipirinha is a Brazilian dish. Poor 2t. Despite his remarks on his 5:2 diet, his reaction to kvd's menu? "The beef fillet sounds gorgeous - I'm drooling as I type."

Saturday Morning Musings - on snakes in the grass and snakeheads

This photo came from kvd. Something found curled up in that little box. Unfurled to 2 metres when fully extended. It got me thinking.

According to Dictionary.com, the metaphor snake in the grass for treachery, alluding to a poisonous snake concealed in tall grass, was used in 37 BC. by the Roman poet Virgil ( latet anguis in herba). It was first recorded in English in 1696 as the title of a book by the English theologian Charles Leslie attacking the Quakers.

The Reverend Leslie strikes me as one of those highly tendentious theologians with whom I struggled when doing the history of the English reformation all those years ago. Still, he has managed to find his own historical niche via a book title!

In checking the origin of snake in the grass, I came across snakehead: 

1. Agents who arrange illegal immigration of Chinese : Sung and theelders in the family raised thousands of dollars to pay the snakeheads to smuggle the young to America (1990s+)
2. Smuggler; somebody who smuggles illegal immigrants from mainland China into Hong Kong.

I had vaguely heard the term, but I hadn't realised its place in recent popular culture. However, it did get me
wondering what their 18th and 19th predecessors were called. Something to check later.

Postscript

kvd advises that the snake is a "Diamond python -Morelia spilota spilota - although some around here would deserve a couple of extra spilota's"!

Lessons from the Paris attacks continued

As I write, investigations into the Paris attacks continue. It is was clearly coordinated and apparently well organised.

The events in Paris have over-run some background work I was doing trying to pull together various current threads in Australian and European politics. Because this has morphed into a significant research piece that may never be completed given current pressures (!),  I thought that I would use this post to pull together a few related threads.

This is an example of one of the images that circulated very quickly as the Paris tragedy was unfolding. It is an example of a meme that combines fear of Islam as a threat with a call to action against Islam.It's not sensible,  how do you ban the Muslim faith?, but it reflects fear. It is also an example of things presently circulating within Australia intended to lead to political action.

I concluded my post Saturday Morning Musings - lessons from the Paris terrorist attacks with these words: "There has been a kind of moral funk in the West, an unwillingness to accept the costs that can follow from genuine adherence to liberal principles, that has begun to undermine the very principles on which liberal democratic societies are based.....I guess that's my real worry from Paris. What lesson or lessons are we all, governments included, going to draw? And what will it cost us?".

Some, it seems, fear that the battle is already lost. In a piece in the Guardian, Nick Cohen suggests that after Paris, Europe may never be as free again: "The horrific events in Paris sound the death knell for European liberalism." Mr Cohen is clearly concerned at what it all means, at the possible loss of the liberal dream.

"Close Our Borders Now......Dont Wait For A Tragedy Like This To Happen"

This is another example of the visual images that circulated. as the attacks unfolded, one that focuses on immigration but has the other subtexts built in. Comments on my feeds included "Close Our Borders Now......Dont Wait For A Tragedy Like This To Happen"; "Turnbulls a Muslim lover...he's always wanted to be prime minister.... And it will be at the county's expense......: and "Ban Islam world wide."

It would be easy to dismiss images and comment like this, but they reflect deeply held personal concerns in Australia and elsewhere. In Europe, President Hollande has vowed to destroy Islamic State, saying it cannot be contained. Whether he can do this and with what effect is presently unclear. Certainly, it has led to a remarkable rapprochement with Russian President Putin.

Former French Justice Minister Rachida Dati told the BBC's Newsnight programme that German Chancellor Angela Merkel made "an error of judgement" by allowing so many migrants into Europe. "She was generous, but that generosity backfired against European people," Ms Dati said. The former minister also said that 90% of radicalisation in France and the rest of western Europe happened not in mosques but on the internet and in prisons where there are numerous jihadist recruiters. In the US, more than half the nation's governors -- 27 states, all but one Republican -- are reported as saying they oppose letting Syrian refugees (at least Muslim refugees) into their states, a fear that is playing out in the presidential campaign.

In Australia, telecommunications carrier Optus came under sustained attack for the simple act of having a poster in Arabic. Optus has withdrawn three of the ads from Casula Mall following threats to staff.

The pessimism expressed by Mr Cohen referred to earlier is echoed from different perspectives by others including Niall Ferguson (Paris and the Fall of Rome) and  Robert Skidelsky (Is western civilisation in terminal decline?) The linked ideas of the decline in western civilisation and the fall of the Roman Empire (at least the Western Empire; the Eastern survived for much longer ) are much in vogue, just at present, as is the idea of Western values. Writing in the Financial Times, Simon Schama (A proclamation against Isis, the party of death) argued that what "what our fellow citizens need now is a clarifying, empowering and inspiring statement of just what it is we must defend, if necessary, to the end". In the US, Republican presidential candidate has released a video calling the fight against IS "a clash of civilizations. And either they win or we win."

Australian conversations I have had since the attacks reflect concerns about Muslim fundamentalism, about the rights of countries to close their borders,.of the need to and right to preserve cultural homogeneity, of the need to protect the Australian way of life against threat. These views came in part from people on the left, traditional Labor or even Green supporters. Others pointed out, with some justice, that people in the West only responded when atrocities affected them. Overall, it was clear that people were deeply conflicted.

With exceptions such as NSW State National Party MP, Andrew Fraser, Australian political leaders including Immigration Minister Dutton have resisted the close the border rhetoric, have said that the country will continue to admit Syrian refugees as announced regardless of religion (or the lack of it). At the same time, it is clear that security measures will be further tightened including, it seems, the FBI teaching NSW police to shoot to kill in certain circumstances, something that creates a certain degree of personal discomfort.   

In this post, I have tried to sketch some of the different threads in the debate that has occurred since the Paris attacks. Underlying those threads are many other debates. There are in fact too many debates and associated threads, many not helpful, for people to easily manage. Further, too many are based on broad generalisations that act to conceal difference such as differences between countries or religious groups. What, for example, do you do with an argument about the decline of civilization or, indeed, clash of civilisations? They don't provide guidance as to how to respond in the specific circumstances of the Paris attacks.

This has become a very long post. I will try to look at specific Australian issues in a later post.