The news this morning is full of the latest Access Economics report on the Australian economic outlook. The report is written to attract attention - the budget is buggered is an example - and indeed has.
Access is closer to the numbers than I am. My own assessment has been so far, so good. If you cut below the hype, Access is actually forecasting the start of an economic recovery with annual growth of just 0.8 per cent in 2008-2009 rising to 2.4 per cent in 2009-2010.
I have been in the process of updating my own views on the economic outlook. So far, I see no reason to vary my view.
One point in the Access Report, however, was the reported statement that the current account deficit is predicted to rise from $A65 billion this financial year to $A100 billion next year as exports fall faster than imports.
I am watching the current account quite closely because I had previously identified this as the key variable. This moved into surplus at just the time we needed it to do so.
I plan to post my own review on Management Perspectives. I will put a cross-post here.
As I write, the British Government is reportedly on the point of announcing yet another bank rescue package. I still stand by all my previous views.