One of the things that I have been watching with interest recently is the rise in prominence of Turkey.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been playing a a far more activist foreign policy role, including most recently a surprise visit to Somalia. I do not sufficiently understand the dynamics of Turkish foreign policy beyond the purely superficial to pretend informed comment. However, it does seem clear that the more active role is underpinned by Turkey's significant economic growth.
The raw numbers are impressive, with the most recent quarter GDP growth up 11% from twelve months before. However, that growth would also seem to be vulnerable because of the size of the current account deficit, above 8% of GDP and rising rapidly.
I know that many of my fellow bloggers will understand far more about Turkey than I do. I mention the country now because I feel that the changes taking place are strategically significant.