Monday, August 31, 2015

Monday Forum - What else might go wrong for the Abbott Government? An exercise in risk analysis.

This rather magnificent shot comes from Above New England .The caption reads:

"Featured on Channel 10's Eye Witness news this image was taken the first and last time my wife came storm chasing with me. As we headed over the hill on the Grafton side of Glen Innes I felt something big was about to happen so as my wife drove I put the camera out the window opened the shutter and a moment after BOOM a crossover CG (cloud to ground) bolt hit not 100m from us........needless to say my wife wanted to go home while I was screaming and fist pumping with excitement in the passenger seat . That moment I thought, "I could never capture another lightning bolt in my life and I'd be a happy man" I'm going to be sharing images over the next few night of lightning so please like our page (link above) and share this post to see more"

The photo sets the scene for today's Forum topic. 

Each week, it seems, another disaster strikes the Abbott Government. Last week it was Operation Fortitude. The fall-out from that will continue this week. Then the Age reports that the Cambodia refugee deal has fallen over. If so, it is likely to get a fair political run. To top it all off, Justice Heydon announces on today whether he will continue as Royal Commissioner. Again, whatever the decision, this will attract controversy.

Now for my question. It seems to me that just about every week in recent weeks something has gone wrong for the Federal Government. What else might go wrong? This is a professional, not political question. I want to tap your views.Think of it as an exercise in risk analysis.


7 comments:

Anonymous said...

well if they hang on grimly until May they will have to deliver another budget...

Jim Belshaw said...

Thanks, anon. The big risk there lies in the potential for deterioration of the Australian economy. That's possible. If that happens, their ability to deliver an election budget will obviously reduced.

2 tanners said...

Stolen/smuggled videos of Nauruan rapes, PNG beatings etc are aired. Adani goes broke (this is possible, for anyone who's checked their corporate structure). First Canning opinion poll is a disaster. Bill Shorten grows a pair and announces a policy (or two!) to the immense relief of the Australian public. Justice Dyson does not disqualify himself, only to get hit with more dirt. Reports that public debt is increasing are released.

OK, I was kidding about Labor policies. Any of the others have better already have a strategy.

2 tanners said...

Sorry ...HAD better already have a strategy

Jim Belshaw said...

Hi 2t. Both Nauru and Manus are vulnerabilities. These two are probably simply erosive in that it might take a really major scandal to have immediate impact. However, I do agree that in terms of continuing crises they are potentials.

Agree on Adani. Canning is an obvious one. Justice Dyson has decided to stay. The most obvious risk here, I think, lies in possible legal challenges creating their own distractions.

Public debt increase constant, so unlikely to have immediate impact. Labor policies could certainly distract!

Anonymous said...

Telling that you have bypassed the 'SWO' and landed directly on the 'T'. Seems you, me, and just about everyone has just about decided the eventual fate of this particular government. 'tis a sad day when the primary 'strength' is maybe the perceived ineffectivenes of the alternative.

kvd

Jim Belshaw said...

Nicely put, kvd.