We have discussed One Nation here from time to time especially in comments. I would like to come back to some of those points later. For the present, the analysis set out provides by far the best snap shot of the attitudes of One Nation voters that we have so far seen. Political scientist Ian McAllister cautions that care must be exercised in interpreting the results because the small number of One Nation voter risks statistical error. That is fair enough, but the results do at least provide a framework, a hypothesis, for future review.
University of New England economic historian R S (Ron) Neale spoke of a middling class. This is an unstable group included in the middle or lower middle class but distinct from them. Ron spoke of them in this way:
... petit bourgeois, aspiring professional men, other literates and artisans. Individuated or privatized like the middle class but collectively less deferential and more concerned to remove the privileges and authority of the upper class in which, without radical changes, they cannot realistically hope to shareExplaining why he rejected the idea of a two class society, the Country Party politician David Drummond wrote that he refused:
to accept the doctrine that society was divided into 2 classes & 2 only. I knew that in between there was a middle class of decent law abiding people, farmers, graziers, small shopkeepers, & to a certain extent professional men. They were either self employed or small employers but largely consisted of people who valued their independence and sought by hard work to build a secure place in society they could sustain .. To the solid core of the "middle class" the unprincipled exploiting greed of employers was as loathsome as the destructive ill-balanced doctrines of extreme unionism.Drummond used the term middle class, but the attributes he attached better reflect Neale's idea of a middling class.
The distinctive features of the middling class are, I think, a degree of alienation from existing power and social structures combined with a a feeling of insecurity. Through hard work, they have established a degree of security and prosperity, but they feel that this is insecure, likely to be taken away. The middling class are worriers.
Drummond was writing in 1965 explaining the views that he had formed as a young man so many decades before. Despite the passage of time, I think that the idea of the middling class is still by far the best way of understanding just what drives One Nation.
14 comments:
Neale: "collectively less deferential and more concerned to remove the privileges and authority of the upper class in which, without radical changes, they cannot realistically hope to share"
Sounds like your typical average pompous tosser. The kind you'd only invite to a social gathering if he was related and was only in town for the night, and the motel was full. And even then only because your spouse insisted, because she herself hadn't actually met him before.
kvd
Middling class? They seem more like extremists to me. I was surprised that they are more likely to live in the cities than country towns - not the salt of the earth!
I'm not so sure of your characterisation of them as pompous tossers, kvd, although I can think of a former One Nation politician who could be so characterised. I suspect most of the One Nation supporters are just ignorant and fearful.
So Jim, are you saying that the "middling class" are likely to be supporters of Pauline Hanson? Sorry if I have misunderstood. I recall a history teacher at school telling us that we might think we are middle class but in fact we were working class. I think we were somewhere in the middle of middle if that makes any sense at all. Our parents worked hard and we were encouraged to reach up beyond our circumstances. Not sure we could be fairly and objectively be described as extremists or tossers. I'm still pretty earthy and hard working. I am certainly never likely to peddle the barrow of someone of the ilk of Pauline Hanson.
GL
Well, now that's funny, because I was actually referring to Neale - but you could also throw in Marr if you wish :)
kvd
kvd: Now your point makes sense :)
based on my previous reading in Australian political history, I find the term middling class a useful explanator for some forms of political views, GL. Just because a person belongs to the middling class, does not mean that they will support or be sympathetic to One Nation, just that One Nation supporters are more likely to come from this group.
The comments from kvd and WB reflect their own biases but say little about the points I was making.
Yes, do let's talk about 'bias'.
Marr's article is drawn from two major sources afaics. The AES (2500, so ONP at 5% is represented by 125 responders) and the "Mapping Social Cohesion" (1500, so ONP may be 75?)
There is no suggestion (by me) that either study is less than reasonably reflective of the views of the Australian electorate as a whole - but that is not to state with equal weight that the specific views of either the 125 or 75 ONP responders is reasonably reflective of ONP voters - or is it?
Marr then takes what is presented to him from these studies, and as usual makes leaps of his own invention, for example:
80% of ONP voters are strongly against immigration. You are 'racist' if you are strongly against immigration. Therefore ONP voters are 'racist'. Biased much?
Personally, I'm strongly against immigration on Mondays and rainy days. Lord knows what I would tick during a 30 minute online survey; what day is it, and is the roof leaking again?
Then there's the bias of always accepting at face value the 'facts' presented from these various studies as accurate - without delving into the methodology behind the data presented. For instance the AES 66 questions contain only 3 opportunities to nominate ONP as a response - but these, then, are turned at 'right angles' to analyse the responses to all other questions. This may be perfectly valid for a reasonably representative cross-section of ONP voters, but that is not what the AES survey was about.
But of course, Marr is a journalist, and has a column in the Guardian, so he must be right.
kvd
Bias #2 - and yes, I do understand that's not what you are wanting to talk about, but this interests me :)
1) Your long-sitting local member is never about but has a lock on the seat, and you think he needs a 'wakeup' vote.
2) Your next door neighbour's daughter babysits for you, and gets your rubbish bins in, and is now standing for ONP, so you give her your first pref, knowing full well she hasn't got a show.
3) You completed the survey the day after the latest IS atrocity.
4) You've just spent 2 hours on the phone to the Telstra call centre, located in (name your country) and end a little frustrated.
So, you vote ONP (or PHON, if you like), and from this, are branded a 'racist'.
kvd
kvd: Having re-read Marr's article, it strikes me as presenting information fairly. The differences between ONP supporters and the rest of the community on many issues seem large enough to be significant despite small samples.
The data provides some support for my view that ONP supporters tend to be ignorant and fearful, but I acknowledge that Involves some extrapolation.
I don't think the data suggesting that ONP supporters tend to be reasonable well off provides much support for the view Jim seemed to be presenting that they are representative of a "middling class". If the middling class has any meaning it would have to be related to the concept of a median voter, who is in the middle of the political spectrum between the LNP coalition and the Labor party. ONP supporters are generally a long way from the middle of the spectrum. (Jim's comment suggests he may have changed his view.)
I should add that I am sceptical that the median voter concept has any meaning these days and I think the concept of a middling class, like the forgotten people, is merely of historical interest. The political scene in Australia is rapidly fragmenting into an array of interest groups that have little concern for the common good.
My re-reading of Marr's article suggests I should have added that ONP supporters tend to be gloomy and nostalgic, as well as ignorant and fearful.
BTW, have you heard that the UN has officially declared today to be International Fake News Day?
Winton, regards your first para and "fairness" I would just quote one of Marr's comments:
One Nation voters loathe immigrants. It’s an embarrassing challenge for a decent country to find such forces at work, but it is much too late to pretend that a party which displays such extreme hostility to immigration is not driven by race. That’s simply not facing facts.
I find that particularly simplistic and emotive - and hence in no way 'fair'.
kvd
Sorry Winton - a rushed comment due to those pesky things called clients :)
What I meant to briefly add is the example of Dick Smith who, for reasons entirely unrelated to questions of race, is quite vocal about our immigration policies. I just don't think opposition to immigration is fairly categorised as 'racist', and given the actual 'racial' makeup of our immigration, not far short of nonsense anyway.
Sorry to continue off-topic, Jim.
kvd
Those seem fair points, kvd @7.21
Ian McAllister said on the AES: “Treat the survey data – because of the small numbers of ONP supporters – as a blurry image rather than a precise profile.” In sample design, national surveys are intended to be representative of national social, economic and demographic structures. When you focus on a particular small group such as PHON voters, you have both a numbers problems (the smaller the number the greater the risk of statistical error)and a structural problem (are the PHON voters included properly representative of PHON voters as a whole). You point to these problems.
Accepting the statistical problems, you point to the question of bias in interpretation, jumping to conclusions based on personal perceptions. David Marr's analysis, you suggest, reflects his own perception bias. That may well be right too.
Your quote @10.51 reflects this. "One Nation voters loathe immigrants. It’s an embarrassing challenge for a decent country to find such forces at work, but it is much too late to pretend that a party which displays such extreme hostility to immigration is not driven by race. That’s simply not facing facts."
Winton @10.22 "Having re-read Marr's article, it strikes me as presenting information fairly. The differences between ONP supporters and the rest of the community on many issues seem large enough to be significant despite small samples."
I have only read the Guardian excerpt, Winton. That was my broad first impression, too. However, as in kvd's quote, where Mr Marr moves from analysis to express his own value biased opinions linked to the evidence, then he goes off the rails.
The middling class bears no relationship to the median. The first is a analytical social construct used to explain political behaviour, the second a statistical concept with no explanatory power.
And, kvd, you are not off track. And indeed, if you were, so what?
Or as my self-employed, fairly cynical son said to me back around election time:
Greens: free stuff, which is good for you and the planet
Labs: more free stuff
Libs: 'stuff' is not free
PHON: get stuffed
kvd
ps only because Winton reminded it was 1st April :)
kvd: I agree with you that Marr's comment linking racism and opposition to immigration is not fair. People who use language in that way could be aptly described as "deplorables".
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