I am pleased to report that the RBA's latest assessment of the economic outlook seems remarkably close to that I have been putting forward for some time now.
Do read it. I think that you will find it reassuring.
The RBA material also answered a conundrum that had been concerning me and on which I wrote in Are all the Australian economic forecasts wrong?. I will update this post tonight, in so doing also answering a request for clarification posed by Secret Admirer.
One of the reasons I am so cautious when writing on technical or professional matters is the fear that I might be wrong.
You have to remember that while I have considerable knowledge in some areas, it is not necessarily up to date. I find that the best approach is to start with very basic questions. That way I can test while learning.
Many people are frightened to ask basic questions. They accept the authority of the expert. Yet experts can be wrong. So you should never be frightened to ask people to explain until you do understand.
In my own case, my curiosity and desire to test can create problems in a working environment where people just want to get on with the doing.
We all know the chronic questioner, the person who tries to stand on principles no matter how inappropriate in the case in question. Yet in perhaps 10% of cases I have been right, forcing subsequent changes.
This is really getting into another discussion, so I will finish here.