Measured by the general tone of commentators as well as initial opinion poll results, the latest Commonwealth budget has been quite well received in the general community. Opposition Leader Abbott's response was, not unexpectedly, highly political but has still helped set the frame for discussion.
The interesting thing now is just what happens to the Australian economy, for that will affect the exact form of discussion. While I expected the decline in the value of the Australian dollar to occur sooner than most people expected, it has come a little earlier than I expected, while the exact transmission mechanisms were a little different. I had expected the decline to be associated with the end of global quantitative easing. In fact, the present decline is due in part to the prospective, not actual, ending of QE in the US.
I don't make precise economic forecasts. When I do I am always wrong! However, analysis can reveal broad trends and something about possible alternative outcomes, even if we cannot actually pick turn points. Here the next twelve months are going to be very interesting. Forget hedge funds, by the way.
On a completely different matter, the debate over vaccination has become a real issue in NSW. Should pre-schools be allowed to ban un-vaccinated children?