Friday, December 20, 2013

Belshaw's assessment of the Australian economic outlook 2014

My main post today is on my sadly neglected professional blog: Friday Economics- economic outlook 2014. This post follows some of the discussion we have been having on economics issues.

At the start of November, I prepared my economic assessment for the state of the Australian economy in 2014. Think of it as a personal benchmark subject to checking against developments with modification as required. Now, two months later, I put it on-line with a commentary on what has happened since.


Anonymous said...

Hi Jim, and compliments of the approaching season to you, and your loved ones.

I think your referenced overview is reasonable, only if you disregard a few potential speedbumps.

To begin with, while I would dearly love to see a politics (here and OS)-free level playing field, I think you are maybe not taking very much into account regarding both US and regional political pressure points.

In the US, the 'debt ceiling' which caused so much angst comes into play Jan-Feb I think. Then there's the Affordable Health Care Act which isn't - affordable, universal, settled or even past first base as to registration as yet - never mind interfacing with the insurers in a reliable fashion. Add in mid-term elections, and several simmering scandals which will not go away; I think anyone who believes the US will have a benign 2014 (they sneeze, we catch cold, etc.) is in denial.

I think the US suffers from "too much democracy, lacklustre leadership". And I believe this will affect us.

Then there's regional players. How do you honestly see a freeing up of both investment and spending against a backdrop of the tensions between China and Japan, Indonesia and Aus., India and Pakistan, the withdrawal (i.e. return to tribalism) from Afghanistan - this is ignoring tensions in PNG and South Africa, and the north-south EU divide?

I sometimes wonder if one day soon we Aussies will wander out onto the level playing field for a game of cricket, but have no-one to play with - 'cause they are all too busy self-destructing.

Anyway - Happy NY and all that.


Jim Belshaw said...

Hi kvd, and thanks. Compliments to you and yours as well. The US has, I think, a two year deal on the budget. The latest economic date confirms the strengthening of the US economy. There are other risks and potential shocks, but so far so good!