Thursday, February 05, 2009

Forecasting Problems

While I often disagree with conventional lines, it is quite rare to find myself in a position where my own views diverge from most popular sides in a current debate. Yet this is where I stand now on the economic outlook.

In my last post on this blog, Confusions over current economic forecasts, I recorded my confusion over the growing gap between my own views on the Australian economy and the various comments and forecasts.

I have just put up a post, Are all the Australian economic forecasts wrong?, in which I examined one issue.

In some ways I hope that people can point to mistakes that I might have made. Otherwise, we have a bit of a mess.

I will provide an economic analysis of Mr Turnbull's position tomorrow.

Just at present, I think that the best thing that I can do is provide further analysis pointing to issues.

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