Iowa caucus results
Republican vote, 99% reported:
- Ted Cruz: 28%, eight delegates
- Donald Trump: 24%, seven delegates
- Marco Rubio: 23%, seven delegates
- Ben Carson: 9%, three delegates
- Rand Paul, Jeb Bush: one delegate each. Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich and Rick Santorum: no delegates
- Hillary Clinton: 50%, 22 delegates
- Bernie Sanders 50%, 21 delegates
- Martin O'Malley, 1%, no delegates
My first Monday Forum after I came back from Europe last year posed the question are we seeing the return of the old left and right? In comments, Evan wrote :I can see a return to the old left. I think it is still the neo-con's on the right." While I could see Evan's point, I wasn't sure:. "I agree that neo-con views are still influential, but there seems to be a pretty big shift underway. The new right parties that have sprouted in Europe are hardly neo-con!"
A week after the post, the photogenic Mr Trudeau somewhat unexpectedly inflicted a heavy defeat on the ruling Conservative Party in the Canadian elections and has since become something of a pin-up figure especially but not only among many on the left. In Australia, the rise of Mr Turnbull has seem something of a shift in the Government position, creating tensions within the Liberal Party among those on the right. Mr Abbott's determination to stay in Parliament and apparently position himself as factional leader for certain right views has created tensions. In an opinion piece, Peter Reith pointed to some of the apparent inconsistencies in Mr Abbott's position.
In the US, Mr Sanders remains unashamedly socialist, while Hilary Clinton is clearly centre-left. On the Republican side, Mr Trump can be allocated to the populist right. He appears to have been successful to this point in creating a coalition of dissatisfied voters that actually spans more traditional party responses. By contrast, Ted Cruz would appear to belong to the neo-conservative right.
Mr Cruz's views are clearly set out on his website. I know that he has some followers in Australia because I read their feeds, but many of his views would appear quite strange to many Australian eyes. Do have a browse and tell me what you think.
In all this, there are some very strange overlaps in attitudes. Things are not always what they seem. I will come back to that in a later post.
13 comments:
I predict that Mr Abbott will prove to be a destructive force within the Coalition for quite some time, focusing neo-con resentment of more centrist Turnbull policies but never for a moment seriously focusing enough support to do anything but fracture the Government's approach.
You could well be right, 2t! Prediction recorded.
Cruz is just a joke, and H! is probably a crimminal, and most certainly incompetent.
I think something like a Biden-Rubio contest is likely now, but for local consumption, my, how it underlines the farce a direct elect Prez of Oz would be.
kvd
kvd, do you mean Clinton-Rubio (which is my prediction, but it will take a late run from Rubio in his stronghold states) or have I missed a joke? I can be pretty slow at times. For pathetic statistics nerds like myself, I like the calls from fivethirtyeight.com, formerly independent but now owned by (I think) NYT. Still, they've been left to call it how they see it and as far as I'm aware their statistical modelling on elections is second to none
On Prez of Oz, I agree with kvd (oops, twice in a post). My view, which is NOT ascribed to kvd, having made too many recent errors, is God save the Queen and her magnificent distance from Australia. I'm republican by nature, but constitutional monarchist by force of historical example. Actually, I'd be interested if kvd agrees or not, and why.
Jim, thanks for recording my views. Because I expect Abbot-dystemia to be a state, not an event, I expect a little html buzzer, saying "Right again, 2t" in preferably recognisable Adam West tones each time it happens. One per post will be adequate. :)
Off topic:kvd, thank you for a rousing debate on TI. I am not a fanatical devotee of NGOs (far from it) but even if we didn't agree, I think we put out some issues that people really need to think about before hitting the subscribe/support button. I know I found it easier to hit Jim's button (VERY bad typo corrected there) than TI's.
Hi tanners, no, no typo - I really did mean Biden for the Dems. He can come in over the top, perhaps even making it plain that he will only serve one term to serve as some sort of 'bridge' to a new generation.
Perhaps a Biden-Warren ticket for them. Can't see H! providing anything more than useful ammo for the other side, what with her dreadful record in past administration roles, and the shadow of a possible criminal prosecution hanging over her re the email business (already there is more published material against her than sank Petraeus) - and then there's Bill: it is unfortunate for her that he would be sharing the Whitehouse. Interns would have to be banned :)
On the other side, any of Rubio-Kasich, Rubio-Carson or Rubio-Fiorina would work. Cruz comes over as way too confrontational to be able to work with the other arms of government. Campaign rhetoric needs to modify to cabinet compromise to get anything meaningful done, and Cruz has a disturbing fervour about him IMO.
On Prez of Oz I agree with you. On TI I again agree that it is always useful to have discussions of respectful disagreement - and you have my respect and thanks for that - particularly the "people need to think" comment.
kvd
Just another thought on the US situation. It must be stated that all of this is not to deny that there is a huge rusted-on component available on both sides - people who will die in a ditch for H! for instance - but elections are always about appealing to the undecideds, the independents. And I can't see either HC or Cruz appealing to those.
kvd
It's too late for Biden. He tested the waters earlier and withdrew. Now it's too late for him to start pulling funds and (importantly) endorsements sufficient to run a campaign, and too late to set up a ground game in key states. The Clintons pull big support in the states with large African-American and Latino communities - Sanders needs to be way out in front before then to have a hope.
As for the undecideds, they can always not vote. Trump's hope was to get enough first-timers out to change the power balance, and many did come out, but they voted Cruz, not Trump, and Rubio. I still favour Trump to win New Hampshire but only in a way that further disintegrates the Republican vote. After that, his relevance will slide unless he can hang on and win in winner-take-all states. In which case there will be a contested convention and the lack of endorsements will hurt him, help Rubio and I have no idea about Cruz. Except that as you noted, he's very confrontational and may wind up fighting with Trump for the right to run off against Rubio.
Interesting times.
tanners, all it would take for him to enter the race is 1) HC being treated equally under the law re already announced national security concerns, and 2) the Dems changing their selection rules/process in the event of her 'unavailability'. Something like a 'brokered convention' could be arranged fairly easily.
I'm not holding my breath, but equally, I do not think HC is a foregone conclusion for eventual candidacy. As you rightly say - interesting times.
kvd
I will see what I can do about that buzzer, 2t! I would be very surprised if Biden came back into the race. Not sure about the number of rusted on voters, kvd. My impression is that the proportions here are well down.
Not to push the possibility too far, but here's a recent article on the subject. I had not read this before making my earlier points. (The comments are also both informative and funny)
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsmax-Tv/joe-biden-hillary-clinton-democrats-presidential-race/2016/01/11/id/709042/
kvd
Took your advice, JDB, and had a squiz at Cruz's website. God help us all if he gets up. He's certifiable, IMHO. It's possible (?) (well, entertaining, in a sick Dr Strangelove way) to find inherent black comedy in the insane rantings of Mr Trumpet. But there ain't no humour, intended or otherwise in Mr Cross, no siree. He's Cross by name and cross by nature, and barking bonkers as well. What is it with Texans and guns and rednecks having umpteen little rednecks? That'll l'arn the 'laughing, chardonnay swilling' execs at Planned Parenthood, when the aforesaid reddies line 'em up and gun 'em down with their God given, upheld 2nd Amendment, as foreshadowed in the 10 commandments, AK47s. Yeehah!!! TG Toned Abs (attrib to John Birmingham)has lost the top job. Imagine the BAACCH(e)D corporation running the 'free' world. Bernadi, Abbott Andrews Corman Cruz Hockey Dutton. Cheers, JCW
Reading those comments is like being in a parallel universe, kvd. There is some informative material there in terms of mechanics. Because I'm so far out of touch, I went digging round in the latest poll numbers and associated stories. Mrs Clinton is in a degree of trouble, but I just can't see Biden. Mind you, I may be wrong!
Interested in your reaction, JCW. I'm glad you looked! Quite strange from an Oz perspective
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