Placing Barnaby Joyce in his Northern NSW context

The election of Barnaby Joyce as leader of the Australian Commonwealth Parliamentary National Party with Fiona Nash as his deputy marks a significant changing of the guard.

The previous leader, Warren Truss, was very much a team person within the Liberal-National Party coalition arrangements to the point of partial invisibility. This may have aided the functioning of the coalition, but created real electoral difficulties for the National Party. In electoral terms, the Liberal Party is as much a threat to the Nationals as Labor or indeed the Greens.

Describing the coalition as a business partnership, not a marriage, Mr Joyce is likely to be more assertive,

One side effect of Mr Joyce's election is that I ended up on air this morning talking to ABC New England North West's Kelly Fuller (@kelfuller) about Mr Joyce's election in the context of Northern NSW politics.

It's actually quite remarkable. Of the thirteen leaders of the Commonwealth Country/National Parties (the Nationals were previously called the Country Party) seven have come from Northern NSW. At NSW State level, six of the eleven leaders have come from Northern NSW. If we compare this to the other parties, the score is none for the Liberal Party at either state or federal level, one for the Labor Party at state level.

In addition to the parties themselves, we have to add in the New England independents including especially Tony Windsor and Rob Oakshott who were instrumental in making Julia Gillard Prime Minister. There are also the separatists seeking self-government for the North.

Describing My Joyce as a retail politician, not a detail politician, Tony Windsor is considering running again against Mr Joyce. Should he do so, he will draw in particular from resentments created on the Liverpool Plains in the south of the large New England electorate over coal mining and cold seam gas extraction. This is Windsor territory. Whether his previous vote elsewhere in the electorate will be maintained, he needs that to win, is open to question. My present feeling is no.

Kelly and I chatted about Mr Joyce's somewhat larrikin style. I compared him to Earle Page, a long standing Country Party leader, but there is a strong dash there of Artie Fadden, another Country Party leader.

It will be interesting to see how all this evolves. . . .

Postscript

It seems that GetUP is considering organising a campaign to draft Tony Windsor to run against Barnaby Joyce. This is the GetUp email:

 "Calling all GetUp members of New England: over the last couple of days, we've heard from a number of you about the promotion of your local MP, Barnaby Joyce, to Deputy Prime Minister. The question is: what can New England do about it? One idea is below. It's up to you to vote on whether to move forward. This email is your ballot, and voting closes Sunday.

Well, this Election year just got a whole lot more interesting.

In case you missed it: this week, the leader of the Nationals stepped down and, unchallenged, up stepped a familiar face. Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome Barnaby Joyce - Australia's Deputy Prime Minister-in-waiting.

As you hail from New England, Barnaby Joyce probably requires no introduction to you.

He's probably best known for being a part of the Cabinet that approved the Shenhua mine on prime agricultural land. You might also recognise him when he personally received $50,000 from Gina Rinehart for his political campaign. Mr Joyce has done some pretty unforgettable things, so it was unsurprising when GetUp polls suggested New England voters like you were concerned about him becoming Deputy Prime Minister.

But there's another version of the future - in the form of former independent member for New England, Tony Windsor. Speaking to media this week, Mr Windsor said he would consider a challenge to Barnaby Joyce for the seat of New England. In the past, Tony Windsor's been at the forefront of the fight on key issues like protecting water from large mining projects and coal seam gas mining.

This week, I've spoken with GetUp members from New England who say that our community should use this moment to band together, and encourage a strong, independent candidate like Tony Windsor to run against Barnaby Joyce this election. But GetUp is its members - and the vote is yours.

Here's the big question. Should the GetUp community of New England come together to urge Tony Windsor to run for Parliament in your electorate?

YES - let's launch a community campaign urging Tony Windsor to challenge Barnaby Joyce for the seat of New England.

NO - the local GetUp community shouldn't do this

GetUp has a history of strong political campaigning during elections — but to be effective, it needs to be owned and driven by the local community. So this is your call. This email is your ballot, and voting closes on Sunday night.

Here's why this idea is on the table:

• Barnaby Joyce has a track record as a notorious climate sceptic, and as Deputy Prime Minister, he will present a real threat to Australia's progress towards a clean energy future - among a number of other issues. This week, he became much more powerful in the Turnbull government.
• Tony Windsor has serious credentials when it comes to standing up on issues GetUp members care about. He's represented New England as an MP before as an independent, where he stood up for protecting water and prime agricultural land from threats of coal seam gas and big mining projects, and for action on climate change. He's probably the only person who could challenge our Deputy PM in waiting, and win.

Tony Windsor's not in the race yet. But this week, speaking to media, he said that he's considering it.

And now, so much is at stake.

When Malcolm Turnbull rose to power last year, many of us were hopeful. Yet, Australia's still staunchly shackled to ineffective "Direct Action" policies. The Turnbull government still issued approvals for one of the world's largest coal mines -- just days after assuring the rest of the world that we're acting on climate change. With Barnaby Joyce - climate blocker extraordinaire - our PM in waiting, we can probably expect to see far, far more moves like this.

We've heard from many local GetUp members who are eager for change in the seat of New England. Many think that encouraging a strong, independent candidate like Tony Windsor to run as an independent for the seat of New England is one way to get there. And one thing's for sure: it would call Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce to account on his climate sceptic ways.

As a local GetUp member, this decision rests in your hands. What do you say?

YES - let's call on Tony Windsor to challenge Barnaby Joyce for the seat of New England.

NO - I don't think the GetUp community should do this

What will it mean if GetUp members of New England decide to move forward? If we do vote to go ahead, together, we'll kick off a community-powered campaign to publicly call on Tony Windsor to run for the seat of New England. We'll go into bat against Barnaby Joyce's climate denier ways. Together, we'll demonstrate that the people of New England are hungry for a leader who is unafraid to stand up to the powerful few within the Coalition Government, the polluter lobby and corporate interests that's holding them back. And if Tony Windsor can be a candidate that makes key commitments on the issues our community cares most about - GetUp members will back him all the way.

With Barnaby Joyce as Deputy Prime Minister in waiting, your local election will be about more than just New England. It'll be a referendum on our on the future of our entire nation's policies, and the next Parliament after that. So what do you say?

Thanks for being a part of it."

Meantime, Winton Bates pointed to these cartoon depictions of Mr Joyce. Winton is also concerned about the opposition to foreigners buying Australian agricultural land (Should foreigners be allowed to buy agricultural land in Australia?), opposition led in part by Mr Joyce.

 For his part, kvd feels that Mr Joyce lacks sufficient gravitas.

Jim, I expect he doesn't matter much in the grand scheme of things, but I have the continuing impression (see Winton's reference for several issue examples) that he manages to put a sort of vulgar touch on anything under debate. Some like that approach; I don't.

A recent one is the Depp dog saga: I take Australia's need for quarantine quite seriously (I've been through the process three times over the years with dogs, so I know some of the procedures) and I think the two serious issues involved - (i) how did the dogs get past inspection, and (ii) the need for quarantine controls - were to a large extent subsumed by his dramatic posing. It was an ideal opportunity for an international teaching moment lost.

He just reminds me of the mad uncle nobody wants to sit with at the wedding, and certainly not "top table" material. Except, now he is.

This Buzfeed story gives some other reactions.  .         .