Monday, October 20, 2008

Where to find the new NSW population projections

The Sydney media today has extensive coverage of the new NSW population projections made by the NSW Department of Planning.

These numbers are quite important for those who live in the state because this is the data the State Government uses for planning purposes. There is no attempt in NSW to use policy to affect population distribution through, for example, economic development action. Rather, the Government simply goes with the projections, making them something of a reinforcing prophesy.

I am completing a full analysis of the numbers for the New England, Australia blog - to say that the projections for Northern NSW are depressing would be an understatement.

In the meantime, those who want access to the original report can find it here.


I have now put up my first post on the numbers, New NSW Population Projections 2006-2036 - what do they mean?. Recognising the qualifications I have made, I think that the analysis shows the need to avoid the type of breathless reporting, here for example, that has been so prominent today. It is sensible to look at the assumptions involved before jumping to conclusions.

I found one very odd thing in this first analysis. Assuming that I have not made a silly error, the projections show an actual decline in the population of NSW outside Sydney between 2006 and 2016. I don't believe this. On the surface, it just does not make sense.

Later note: I was right. It did not make sense and there was a silly mathematical error, now corrected!

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